MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 9Joey Ortiz
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.345wOBA vs LHP.290xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .340 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .317 vs league .314 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .313 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .325 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Joey Ortiz: wOBA .361 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Joey Ortiz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Joey Ortiz's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.2 mph at -10°Single: 76.1 mph at 19°Out: 90.1 mph at -20°Single: 100.0 mph at 14°Out: 60.3 mph at 47°Triple: 87.0 mph at 26°Out: 90.9 mph at 60°Out: 91.6 mph at 61°Single: 84.5 mph at 1°Out: 108.0 mph at -10°Out: 105.0 mph at -14°Out: 84.5 mph at -34°Single: 107.4 mph at -2°Out: 94.8 mph at 29°Single: 74.4 mph at 10°Single: 85.0 mph at 1°Double: 101.9 mph at 14°Out: 106.2 mph at 15°Single: 86.5 mph at 3°Out: 71.7 mph at -13°Home run: 101.7 mph at 28°Single: 94.5 mph at 10°Out: 91.7 mph at 23°Single: 81.7 mph at 9°Single: 104.2 mph at 9°Single: 83.2 mph at 21°Out: 88.5 mph at 24°Single: 109.4 mph at 7°Out: 57.5 mph at 53°Out: 90.6 mph at 5°Single: 84.4 mph at 14°Out: 96.1 mph at 7°Double: 94.9 mph at 19°Out: 99.3 mph at 20°Out: 87.9 mph at -12°Single: 104.5 mph at 10°Out: 95.9 mph at 26°Out: 106.3 mph at -16°Out: 90.0 mph at -4°Out: 87.6 mph at 68°
38% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.5%60.3%+0.2
2+ total bases29.9%29.6%+0.2
Home run7.8%7.5%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Joey Ortiz against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.340.33714.5%17.2%19About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.317.31422.8%28.5%9About league average vs these
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.313.31024.9%32.6%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.325.32320.8%26.2%5Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.361.35813.4%16.2%28About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Joey Ortiz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.375.444.625.456.26411.1%11.1%18.8%88.9108.00.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1122.238.273.381.284.28222.7%4.5%14.3%91.4108.00.0%37.5%43.8%
Last 30 G2452.245.288.429.310.26225.0%5.8%16.1%90.1112.22.8%44.4%25.0%
90 days4180.280.325.480.347.28922.5%6.2%15.6%88.3112.23.5%38.6%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 26%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G311.091.091.091.082.11472.7%0.0%47.6%89.1101.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1135.382.400.500.416.29737.1%2.9%36.1%91.0109.44.8%38.1%57.1%
Last 30 G2464.367.391.533.410.29926.6%4.7%28.6%91.3109.44.5%38.6%40.9%
90 days53143.344.380.542.408.31321.0%6.3%20.2%89.3109.45.8%41.3%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 104 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 23%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.211.250.316.250.18145.0%5.0%35.1%89.0108.00.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1557.327.351.455.365.29131.6%3.5%27.2%91.2109.42.7%37.8%51.4%
Last 30 G30116.312.345.486.365.28225.9%5.2%22.9%90.7112.23.8%41.2%33.8%
90 days62223.320.360.519.386.30421.5%6.3%18.5%89.0112.25.0%40.4%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 161 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 24%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 8%
Joey Ortiz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .311running 71 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider87.5101.2-10.261Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.076.119.898Single
Sep 23RHPCutter87.190.1-20.095Double play
Sep 23LHPFastball90.3100.014.805Single
Sep 19LHPFastball93.960.347.113Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.487.026.114Triple
Sep 18LHPSlider88.990.960.024Out
Sep 18LHPFastball91.791.661.014Out
Sep 18LHPSinker96.784.51.243Single
Sep 18LHPFastball97.1108.0-10.363Force out
Sep 17LHPSinker99.3105.0-14.246Out
Sep 17RHPSlider87.984.5-34.054Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411002
Sep 23411002
Sep 20400004
Sep 19313001
Sep 18511010
Sep 17511010
Sep 16411003
Sep 15434000
Sep 13314101
Sep 11544000

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Joey Ortiz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Joey Ortiz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.4%41.6%
Whiff%19.8%21.7%
Contact%80.2%78.3%
Chase%41.0%40.0%
wOBA.253.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.2%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.342
K%21.1%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%28.7%
Avg EV88.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.290against pitches like his
RV/1000.38
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%22.9%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Joey Ortiz: every projection we've made →