MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 8Sal Frelick
Bats leftTalent grade CContactCold
.335wOBA vs LHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .349 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .314 vs league .311 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .283 vs league .280 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .303 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Sal Frelick: wOBA .346 vs league .343 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sal Frelick's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sal Frelick's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 84.0 mph at 5°Out: 61.2 mph at 68°Out: 90.6 mph at -23°Out: 68.4 mph at 10°Out: 88.5 mph at 5°Out: 96.5 mph at -9°Out: 67.0 mph at -27°Out: 70.5 mph at -38°Single: 90.0 mph at -3°Single: 89.5 mph at -2°Out: 53.0 mph at 58°Out: 81.5 mph at 44°Single: 87.6 mph at 2°Out: 78.3 mph at 48°Out: 89.6 mph at 19°Out: 94.8 mph at 20°Out: 29.5 mph at -15°Out: 76.6 mph at -27°Out: 93.6 mph at 38°Out: 87.8 mph at -29°Out: 80.6 mph at -6°Out: 85.6 mph at 63°Out: 94.0 mph at -4°Single: 98.4 mph at 6°Out: 99.3 mph at 20°Single: 63.3 mph at 42°Out: 76.0 mph at 75°Out: 83.0 mph at 55°Out: 102.9 mph at -19°Out: 72.5 mph at -14°Out: 97.1 mph at 27°Out: 101.0 mph at 27°Out: 84.6 mph at -19°Out: 77.8 mph at -22°Double: 104.1 mph at 14°Out: 86.1 mph at 44°Out: 101.1 mph at 21°Out: 57.1 mph at 37°Out: 95.9 mph at -25°Single: 88.5 mph at 12°
23% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.8%59.1%+0.6
2+ total bases29.4%29.2%+0.2
Home run4.4%5.0%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Sal Frelick against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.349.34612.7%19.8%7Little history vs this shape
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.314.31120.9%29.6%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.283.28026.7%34.1%1Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.303.30119.2%27.4%2Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.346.3438.0%12.9%12About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sal Frelick · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G44.500.500.500.450.2760.0%0.0%0.0%84.290.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1113.333.333.333.375.4190.0%0.0%0.0%79.0101.10.0%15.4%30.8%
Last 30 G1626.261.320.304.322.3447.7%7.7%6.8%78.2102.00.0%18.2%27.3%
90 days2034.310.394.379.379.3945.9%8.8%6.0%80.3102.00.0%14.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.250.417.375.354.2810.0%25.0%0.0%76.996.50.0%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1236.125.194.188.178.23011.1%8.3%3.3%84.6104.13.4%24.1%17.2%
Last 30 G2572.164.208.269.211.21515.3%5.6%7.3%84.9104.11.8%31.6%21.1%
90 days3082.197.244.303.242.24213.4%6.1%7.4%85.0104.11.5%31.8%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.333.438.417.378.2800.0%18.8%0.0%79.196.50.0%7.7%7.7%
Last 15 G1549.182.229.227.227.2778.2%6.1%2.5%82.9104.12.4%21.4%21.4%
Last 30 G3098.189.237.278.240.24813.3%6.1%7.1%83.1104.11.3%27.8%22.8%
90 days35116.229.287.324.281.28611.2%6.9%7.0%83.6104.11.1%26.6%28.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 94 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 10%
Sal Frelick · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating16Poor
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.274 / .276results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.584.05.370Double
Sep 24RHPCutter92.161.268.000Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball78.590.6-23.071Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.668.410.220Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.088.55.403Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball95.396.5-9.254Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter83.367.0-27.048Force out
Sep 20LHPSinker95.570.5-38.111Out
Sep 18LHPFastball97.790.0-3.283Single
Sep 17RHPFastball96.689.5-2.297Single
Sep 17RHPCutter90.853.058.003Out
Sep 17RHPFastball95.281.544.016Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412020
Sep 23300000
Sep 20300000
Sep 18211010
Sep 17422000
Sep 16200000
Sep 13200000
Sep 12500000
Sep 9411001
Sep 8111000

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Sal Frelick bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sal Frelick with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.3%44.1%
Whiff%20.8%22.7%
Contact%79.2%77.3%
Chase%38.5%38.1%
wOBA.226.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.0%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.320
K%14.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%6.9%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%21.9%
Avg EV84.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

32 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/100-0.10
Hard-hit%20.4%
K%15.6%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sal Frelick: every projection we've made →