MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 6Bryan De La Cruz
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.353wOBA vs RHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TBGriffin Jax
Throws rightBTB Stuff 112Trending Up
4.9projected K28%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Griffin Jax's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 87.0 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -1.6″ rise. Bryan De La Cruz: wOBA .279 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 25%Sinker: 24% usage, 95.1 mph, +16.9″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Bryan De La Cruz: wOBA .352 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 24%Changeup: 23% usage, 90.5 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Bryan De La Cruz: wOBA .331 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +18.1″ rise. Bryan De La Cruz: wOBA .346 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 9% usage, 84.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -14.4″ rise. Bryan De La Cruz: wOBA .283 vs league .276 (about even).Curveball 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryan De La Cruz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryan De La Cruz's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.1 mph at -20°Out: 75.2 mph at 20°Out: 106.4 mph at 10°Double: 103.3 mph at 22°Out: 96.5 mph at 18°Out: 91.0 mph at 31°Out: 96.9 mph at -3°Out: 87.1 mph at -24°Single: 102.0 mph at 4°Out: 95.2 mph at -29°Out: 85.2 mph at -19°Out: 74.7 mph at 35°Single: 73.8 mph at 0°Single: 56.7 mph at -71°Out: 94.4 mph at 6°Out: 99.6 mph at 44°Out: 90.4 mph at -13°Out: 69.5 mph at -21°Single: 99.9 mph at -3°Double: 94.7 mph at 14°Out: 76.7 mph at 12°Out: 105.0 mph at -8°Single: 96.7 mph at -1°Out: 94.2 mph at -19°Double: 89.5 mph at 25°Single: 81.5 mph at 5°Out: 97.4 mph at 57°Out: 89.1 mph at -19°Single: 104.3 mph at -11°Out: 76.1 mph at -35°Out: 96.0 mph at -16°Single: 100.8 mph at 9°Single: 83.0 mph at -13°Out: 77.7 mph at -20°Out: 98.8 mph at 23°Out: 53.1 mph at -34°Out: 90.1 mph at 22°Out: 103.5 mph at -9°Out: 103.1 mph at 5°Home run: 102.1 mph at 30°
45% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.0%58.3%-1.2
2+ total bases30.0%30.8%-0.7
Home run8.5%8.3%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Bryan De La Cruz against each of Griffin Jax's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%87.0-14″ / -2″.279.27227.7%30.5%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker24%95.1+17″ / +11″.352.34611.5%11.4%10About league average vs these
Changeup23%90.5+16″ / +3″.331.32419.1%19.1%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball19%95.6+8″ / +18″.346.34021.5%20.8%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball9%84.5-5″ / -14″.283.27628.8%31.8%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryan De La Cruz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.400.400.600.430.5100.0%0.0%0.0%90.9103.320.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1019.444.474.611.471.31110.5%5.3%12.5%85.2103.36.2%25.0%31.2%
Last 30 G1840.361.375.556.390.28220.0%2.5%22.1%87.4109.26.7%33.3%33.3%
90 days1840.361.375.556.390.28220.0%2.5%22.1%87.4109.26.7%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 17%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.000.111.000.078.27433.3%11.1%33.3%96.4106.40.0%80.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1124.091.167.091.133.21429.2%8.3%22.4%94.6106.40.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2040.229.325.314.318.30722.5%10.0%24.4%90.4106.43.8%50.0%30.8%
90 days2040.229.325.314.318.30722.5%10.0%24.4%90.4106.43.8%50.0%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 69%Line drive 23%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.214.231.204.35821.4%7.1%23.8%93.7106.410.0%60.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1543.250.302.325.283.25720.9%7.0%18.5%89.7106.43.2%41.9%25.8%
Last 30 G2880.296.350.437.354.29421.2%6.2%23.2%88.8109.25.4%41.1%32.1%
90 days2880.296.350.437.354.29421.2%6.2%23.2%88.8109.25.4%41.1%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 20%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 7%
Bryan De La Cruz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating53Average
Last 100 pitches44trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.356 / .319running 36 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.283.1-20.067Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.675.220.887Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball81.0106.410.867Out
Sep 23RHPSinker99.9103.322.927Double
Sep 15LHPChangeup86.096.518.449Out
Sep 15RHPFastball100.291.031.114Out
Sep 15LHPChangeup83.996.9-3.312Out
Sep 13LHPFastball91.687.1-24.071Out
Sep 13RHPCutter91.4102.04.554Single
Sep 12LHPSinker89.995.2-29.066Out
Sep 11LHPFastball93.585.2-19.080Out
Sep 9RHPSlider90.774.735.134Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23212000
Sep 15400001
Sep 13311001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11300011
Sep 9422010
Sep 6200000
Sep 4300002
Sep 2323000

Two strikes

Griffin Jax TB · RHPwith two strikes
Griffin Jax with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup23%28%45.1%36.2%18.6%
Fastball19%27%22.5%17.6%18.0%
Sinker24%18%9.1%28.3%16.9%
Sweeper25%18%30.0%13.6%19.3%
Curveball9%9%45.5%26.1%20.1%
Bryan De La Cruz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryan De La Cruz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.0%42.4%
Whiff%22.6%22.2%
Contact%77.4%77.8%
Chase%41.8%39.8%
wOBA.238.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.1%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.301
K%25.3%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%27.8%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

40 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/1000.73
Hard-hit%25.7%
K%21.5%
BB%6.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Griffin JaxRHP · TB vs PHI
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 19.8 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.7%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.1%10%78 strikeouts: 6.2%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.5%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.7%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Velo91.1
BTB Stuff112
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%11387.011.0%
Sinker24%11495.13.6%
Changeup23%11390.423.8%
Fastball19%11395.615.0%
Curveball9%10384.513.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207426%14%16%.216
Sep 156741%15%12%.126
Sep 96611%6%33%.212

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Griffin Jax TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryan De La Cruz: every projection we've made →