MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIN · batting 8Aaron Sabato
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TEXTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Aaron Sabato's last 3 balls in playHit (0)Out (3)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.0 mph at -11°Out: 84.1 mph at -8°Out: 95.6 mph at 26°
67% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot0% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%55.3%+0.3
2+ total bases30.3%30.1%+0.2
Home run9.2%9.6%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Aaron Sabato · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G12.000.000.000.000.18250.0%0.0%20.0%95.695.60.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G12.000.000.000.000.18250.0%0.0%20.0%95.695.60.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 30 G12.000.000.000.000.18250.0%0.0%20.0%95.695.60.0%100.0%100.0%
90 days12.000.000.000.000.18250.0%0.0%20.0%95.695.60.0%100.0%100.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 0%Fly ball 100%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.09233.3%0.0%14.3%90.697.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G23.000.000.000.000.09233.3%0.0%14.3%90.697.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 30 G23.000.000.000.000.09233.3%0.0%14.3%90.697.00.0%50.0%0.0%
90 days23.000.000.000.000.09233.3%0.0%14.3%90.697.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 2 balls in play
Ground 100%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.000.000.000.000.12840.0%0.0%16.7%92.297.00.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G25.000.000.000.000.12840.0%0.0%16.7%92.297.00.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 30 G25.000.000.000.000.12840.0%0.0%16.7%92.297.00.0%66.7%33.3%
90 days25.000.000.000.000.12840.0%0.0%16.7%92.297.00.0%66.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.004 / .119running 115 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit0/2
2+ total bases0/2
Home run0/2

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 3 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup85.897.0-11.171Out
Sep 21LHPCurveball82.484.1-8.105Double play
Sep 21RHPFastball94.195.626.363Out
Last 2 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23200001
Sep 21300001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Aaron Sabato: every projection we've made →