MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 7Ezequiel Duran
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.308wOBA vs RHP.279xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .363 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .346 vs league .352 (about even).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .321 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .301 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Duran's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Duran's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.5 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 89.6 mph at -24°Out: 84.5 mph at 62°Out: 104.4 mph at -2°Out: 95.1 mph at -16°Out: 97.2 mph at 36°Out: 90.8 mph at -2°Out: 80.1 mph at -48°Out: 95.9 mph at -23°Out: 94.4 mph at 30°Double: 90.1 mph at 15°Out: 87.7 mph at -27°Out: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 61.1 mph at 42°Out: 90.4 mph at 61°Out: 78.8 mph at 65°Out: 61.0 mph at -5°Out: 86.2 mph at -35°Single: 98.9 mph at 13°Single: 105.3 mph at 11°Out: 19.2 mph at 19°Single: 82.5 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 2°Out: 55.2 mph at 42°Single: 105.5 mph at 13°Out: 98.8 mph at 18°Out: 87.4 mph at 1°Out: 45.5 mph at 35°Out: 97.4 mph at -2°Out: 72.1 mph at -29°Out: 93.0 mph at 34°Out: 97.2 mph at 47°Out: 95.6 mph at 22°Out: 108.2 mph at 1°Out: 82.4 mph at 25°Out: 105.6 mph at -3°Out: 52.0 mph at -72°Out: 99.5 mph at 8°Out: 76.1 mph at 13°
40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.8%58.3%+2.5
2+ total bases33.6%31.7%+1.9
Home run9.7%9.3%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Duran against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.363.36815.2%16.2%33About league average vs these
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.346.35225.1%28.2%9About league average vs these
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.321.32628.5%25.5%24About league average vs these
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.301.30647.9%44.2%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Duran · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.000.071.000.054.15942.9%7.1%28.0%90.199.60.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1543.075.116.100.106.19630.2%2.3%18.4%81.6108.20.0%29.6%25.9%
Last 30 G2980.164.225.288.254.24423.8%6.2%22.2%86.0108.21.9%35.2%27.8%
90 days75212.230.274.408.305.27425.0%5.2%23.2%86.6110.26.2%34.0%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.25916.7%16.7%5.9%94.0104.40.0%75.0%0.0%
Last 15 G919.188.316.188.300.38715.8%15.8%19.1%94.2105.60.0%61.5%38.5%
Last 30 G2046.308.413.462.409.38919.6%13.0%23.5%91.5110.96.7%56.7%40.0%
90 days49105.307.410.466.403.35920.0%13.3%24.4%91.0110.94.4%51.5%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.000.100.000.074.19035.0%10.0%19.0%91.7104.40.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1562.107.177.125.166.25525.8%6.5%18.7%85.7108.20.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 30 G30126.214.294.348.311.29722.2%8.7%22.7%88.0110.93.6%42.9%32.1%
90 days77317.254.319.426.338.30323.3%7.9%23.6%88.0110.95.7%39.6%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 212 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 8%
Ezequiel Duran · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating49Average
Last 100 pitches19trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .316running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSlider84.379.5-7.091Out
Sep 23RHPSlider83.799.633.729Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.389.6-24.076Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.284.562.016Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3104.4-2.372Force out
Sep 22LHPFastball90.295.1-16.133Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper75.397.236.261Out
Sep 20RHPSinker82.790.8-2.280Out
Sep 19RHPSinker94.780.1-48.141Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.095.9-23.123Out
Sep 18RHPSlider87.994.430.236Sac fly
Sep 18RHPSlider85.990.115.916Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400012
Sep 19400002
Sep 18512000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16411002
Sep 15322000
Sep 13411011

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Ezequiel Duran bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Duran with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.6%42.4%
Whiff%21.5%22.2%
Contact%78.5%77.8%
Chase%37.6%39.8%
wOBA.247.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%23.7%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV87.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

210 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.279against pitches like his
RV/1000.03
Hard-hit%23.1%
K%24.8%
BB%7.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Duran: every projection we've made →