MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 3Josh Jung
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.336wOBA vs RHP.324xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .370 vs league .368 (about even).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .353 vs league .352 (about even).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .328 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .308 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Jung's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Jung's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 96.5 mph at 20°Single: 91.6 mph at 6°Home run: 104.3 mph at 27°Out: 95.9 mph at -23°Out: 92.5 mph at 41°Out: 84.1 mph at -10°Single: 100.1 mph at 2°Out: 96.0 mph at 22°Double: 95.9 mph at 8°Out: 79.3 mph at 1°Home run: 100.2 mph at 28°Out: 95.2 mph at -2°Single: 98.6 mph at -16°Out: 95.7 mph at -9°Out: 75.0 mph at 10°Out: 104.8 mph at 22°Out: 67.1 mph at 43°Home run: 98.1 mph at 31°Out: 102.3 mph at -10°Double: 100.3 mph at 26°Out: 93.7 mph at 28°Double: 93.4 mph at 18°Single: 101.6 mph at 10°Out: 98.8 mph at 27°Out: 86.9 mph at 48°Out: 97.1 mph at -12°Single: 96.0 mph at 18°Single: 73.8 mph at 5°Out: 67.5 mph at -2°Out: 79.3 mph at 55°Out: 83.9 mph at 32°Single: 102.3 mph at 13°Out: 91.4 mph at 30°Out: 87.1 mph at -8°Single: 102.6 mph at 13°Single: 103.5 mph at 11°Out: 74.0 mph at -37°Out: 88.0 mph at 36°Single: 99.6 mph at 6°Out: 96.9 mph at 18°
57% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.7%66.6%+3.1
2+ total bases42.9%40.0%+2.9
Home run13.2%12.5%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Jung against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.370.36815.8%16.2%16About league average vs these
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.353.35228.6%28.2%6Little history vs this shape
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.328.32625.3%25.5%9About league average vs these
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.308.30644.0%44.2%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Jung · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.167.231.417.277.21338.5%0.0%42.9%91.3100.214.3%42.9%14.3%
Last 15 G1236.188.250.375.294.29119.4%5.6%25.8%90.2104.87.7%38.5%38.5%
Last 30 G2472.222.306.444.335.32323.6%8.3%22.1%91.2106.710.6%48.9%42.6%
90 days2472.222.306.444.335.32323.6%8.3%22.1%91.2106.710.6%48.9%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.667.7141.500.871.56114.3%14.3%0.0%98.6104.320.0%100.0%80.0%
Last 15 G1127.500.519.769.552.41111.1%3.7%5.7%93.2104.313.0%65.2%56.5%
Last 30 G1945.475.533.725.537.41913.3%11.1%10.4%93.5106.711.8%64.7%55.9%
90 days1945.475.533.725.537.41913.3%11.1%10.4%93.5106.711.8%64.7%55.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 35%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.333.400.778.485.33530.0%5.0%25.7%94.3104.316.7%66.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1563.328.365.552.405.34215.9%4.8%16.8%91.6104.810.2%51.0%46.9%
Last 30 G27117.320.393.553.413.36019.7%9.4%17.8%92.2106.711.1%55.6%48.1%
90 days27117.320.393.553.413.36019.7%9.4%17.8%92.2106.711.1%55.6%48.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 30%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 6%
Josh Jung · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating95Top tier
Last 100 pitches97steady
wOBA / xwOBA.416 / .384running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter88.596.520.360Double
Sep 24RHPCutter89.491.66.429Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper77.9104.3271.646Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker94.895.9-23.101Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.392.541.022Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.784.1-10.106Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.8100.12.432Single
Sep 22LHPFastball90.096.022.247Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.695.98.544Double
Sep 20RHPChangeup84.079.31.171Force out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.7100.228.939Home run
Sep 19RHPSlider73.495.2-2.278Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24437110
Sep 23411000
Sep 22412002
Sep 20400003
Sep 19414101
Sep 18511011
Sep 17414100
Sep 16535000
Sep 15400002
Sep 13422000

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Josh Jung bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Jung with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%42.4%
Whiff%21.5%22.2%
Contact%78.5%77.8%
Chase%34.6%39.8%
wOBA.228.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.7%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.347
K%22.3%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.7%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%34.4%
Avg EV90.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.324against pitches like his
RV/1001.10
Hard-hit%32.0%
K%23.3%
BB%8.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Jung: every projection we've made →