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Francisco Alvarez
NYM · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.
Statcast
by window and pitcher handFrancisco Alvarez · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 9 | .444 | .444 | .556 | .539 | .368 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 98.8 | 112.3 | 14.3% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| Last 15 G | 10 | 19 | .263 | .263 | .474 | .361 | .412 | 21.1% | 0.0% | 22.9% | 98.0 | 112.3 | 13.3% | 73.3% | 46.7% |
| Last 30 G | 23 | 40 | .189 | .250 | .297 | .269 | .306 | 40.0% | 7.5% | 35.9% | 97.1 | 112.3 | 9.5% | 61.9% | 47.6% |
| 90 days | 37 | 70 | .169 | .300 | .237 | .272 | .296 | 40.0% | 14.3% | 36.1% | 92.8 | 112.3 | 6.5% | 54.8% | 38.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 3%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 11 | .364 | .364 | .727 | .459 | .388 | 27.3% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 91.5 | 113.7 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 14 | 41 | .256 | .293 | .436 | .316 | .295 | 39.0% | 4.9% | 32.9% | 92.8 | 113.7 | 13.0% | 60.9% | 34.8% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 77 | .208 | .260 | .375 | .277 | .259 | 40.3% | 5.2% | 35.6% | 90.4 | 113.7 | 12.2% | 56.1% | 31.7% |
| 90 days | 55 | 158 | .243 | .310 | .444 | .328 | .310 | 33.5% | 8.2% | 32.2% | 90.2 | 113.7 | 16.5% | 49.5% | 36.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 12%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 20 | .400 | .400 | .650 | .495 | .379 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 17.1% | 94.9 | 113.7 | 20.0% | 60.0% | 46.7% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 60 | .259 | .283 | .448 | .330 | .332 | 33.3% | 3.3% | 29.9% | 94.9 | 113.7 | 13.2% | 65.8% | 39.5% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 117 | .202 | .256 | .349 | .274 | .275 | 40.2% | 6.0% | 35.7% | 92.7 | 113.7 | 11.3% | 58.1% | 37.1% |
| 90 days | 58 | 228 | .222 | .307 | .384 | .311 | .306 | 35.5% | 10.1% | 33.5% | 90.9 | 113.7 | 13.9% | 50.8% | 36.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 81.3 | 105.4 | 3 | .505 | Single |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 83.0 | 96.4 | 27 | .451 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 96.8 | 113.7 | 5 | .672 | Single |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Curveball | 82.3 | 94.1 | 27 | .202 | Error |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Fastball | 92.2 | 112.3 | 20 | 1.617 | Double |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Splitter | 87.2 | 104.6 | 24 | 1.540 | Double |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sinker | 91.1 | 89.2 | 25 | .087 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Slider | 87.3 | 78.4 | 0 | .097 | Single |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Sinker | 95.2 | 96.8 | 53 | .009 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Changeup | 89.1 | 108.0 | -2 | .432 | Single |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Fastball | 97.1 | 102.2 | 30 | 1.170 | Home run |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Sweeper | 82.5 | 98.8 | -7 | .202 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 22 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
FormHot
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .330running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Talent
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.328
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%34.0%
BB%9.9%
A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.
xwOBA42.306
Avg EV8390.9
Max EV92113.7
Barrel%9513.9%
Hard-hit%9450.8%
Sweet-spot%6336.9%
K%235.5%
BB%7010.1%
Whiff%233.5%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
Hits in 3 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.
Predicted vs what happened
3 settled gamesGames with a hit3 of 3BTB expected 1.5
Games with 2+ TB3 of 3BTB expected 0.9
Games with a HR1 of 3BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeBwOBA .328 · K% 34.0%
One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.
| Date | Facing | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | H | TB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Andrew Alvarez | 55.7% | 32.1% | 12.6% | not settled | |||
| Sep 23 | Cody Bradford | 58.6% | 33.1% | 14.0% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | Cristopher Sánchez | 45.7% | 28.0% | 11.7% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | Andrew Painter | 44.2% | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 |