Andrew Alvarez

WSH · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 5:45 PM CT

Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH vs NYM

4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.5 batters over 5.0 innings

Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%22.2%

BB%11.3%

Whiff%10.1%

Velo87.4

BTB Stuff107

Location97

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Curveball33%13482.915.8%

Fastball31%8592.23.4%

Slider17%10484.515.4%

Sinker13%10491.74.4%

Changeup7%9486.611.5%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	92	35%	15%	17%	.241
Sep 12	97	31%	14%	15%	.190
Sep 6	78	26%	5%	26%	.300

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameNYM @ WSH →Nationals Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Curveball	Breaking	33%	83.1	-10.7″	-12.2″
Fastball	Hard	30%	92.3	+3.4″	+14.3″
Slider	Breaking	17%	84.6	-1.0″	-1.1″
Sinker	Hard	13%	91.7	+14.9″	+4.9″
Changeup	Offspeed	7%	86.6	+15.1″	+4.9″

The lineup he faces

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Francisco Lindor17%

2Juan Soto18%

3Bo Bichette18%

4Mark Vientos26%

5Carson Benge27%

6Francisco Alvarez36%

7Marcus Semien20%

8A.J. Ewing23%

9Christopher Morel24%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Curveball+16 pts

Fastball-6 pts

Slider-0 pts

Changeup+1 pts

Sinker-10 pts

Andrew Alvarez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Curveball	33%	49%	40.2%	28.6%	21.2%
Fastball	30%	23%	6.5%	12.7%	18.6%
Slider	17%	17%	31.2%	19.2%	21.6%
Changeup	7%	8%	0.0%	4.3%	18.3%
Sinker	13%	3%	20.0%	30.0%	17.7%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts8BTB expected 4.4 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	NYM	4.6	4.5	50.3%	53.1%	not settled
Sep 19	STL	4.4	3.5	62.8%	57.9%	8