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Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Jake Burger · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.182.182.455.264.24236.4%0.0%31.8%90.5106.714.3%42.9%0.0%
Last 15 G1337.107.297.214.254.27132.4%21.6%37.5%86.8107.95.9%29.4%11.8%
Last 30 G2872.182.347.273.296.31730.6%19.4%37.4%88.2109.58.6%31.4%25.7%
90 days70186.173.269.290.255.27229.0%10.8%33.5%88.6112.99.1%39.1%22.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 14%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.125.000.200.18225.0%12.5%23.1%87.1105.40.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1025.182.280.409.336.35724.0%12.0%30.2%91.8110.225.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2147.238.319.667.424.47621.3%10.6%27.4%94.6110.731.2%56.2%34.4%
90 days46103.255.320.564.382.40225.2%8.7%30.7%91.8112.623.5%52.9%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.111.158.278.237.21731.6%5.3%28.6%89.1106.78.3%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1562.140.290.300.287.30629.0%17.7%34.8%89.2110.215.2%33.3%21.2%
Last 30 G30119.206.336.443.347.38026.9%16.0%33.8%91.3110.719.4%43.3%29.9%
90 days73289.203.287.391.301.31827.7%10.0%32.5%89.8112.914.6%44.4%27.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.187.143.008Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper81.181.65.312Double play
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.370.9-8.063Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.078.4-7.077Force out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.394.538.118Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.899.8-3.327Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.174.650.073Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.193.9-22.126Error
Sep 20RHPSlider88.097.837.297Out
Sep 20RHPCutter87.6106.7371.457Home run
Sep 20RHPSlider74.178.744.073Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper84.8105.443.487Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400000
Sep 23311000
Sep 22400003
Sep 20414110
Sep 19400003
Sep 18512021
Sep 17400010
Sep 16523011
Sep 15400011
Sep 13400001
FormCold
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches90trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.298 / .328running 30 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.300
Barrel%9.0%
Hard-hit%28.0%
K%27.6%
BB%9.2%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jake Burger · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Jake Burger · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Dylan Cease: 40.2% · 1 HSep 19 vs José Soriano: 47.9% · no hitSep 20 vs Spencer Miles: 48.2% · 1 HSep 23 vs Nolan McLean: 53.2% · 1 HSep 24 vs Zac Thornton: 57.3% · no hitSep 25 vs Joe Ryan: 57.6% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 2.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 5BTB expected 2.5
Games with 2+ TB2 of 5BTB expected 1.5
Games with a HR1 of 5BTB expected 0.7
Talent gradeBwOBA .300 · K% 27.6%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Joe Ryan57.6%36.6%16.5%not settled
Sep 24Zac Thornton57.3%34.7%21.0%4000
Sep 23Nolan McLean53.2%29.7%13.1%3110
Sep 20Spencer Miles48.2%35.8%12.9%4141
Sep 19José Soriano47.9%29.9%11.3%4000
Sep 18Dylan Cease40.2%21.0%10.8%5120
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.