Joe Ryan

MIN · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 7:10 PM CT

Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX

5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.5%

BB%5.2%

Whiff%11.7%

Velo88.6

BTB Stuff89

Location105

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball44%10393.79.3%

Sweeper19%8280.919.2%

Splitter14%6188.112.1%

Curveball10%8679.710.7%

Sinker7%8993.55.7%

Slider6%8987.312.5%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	99	21%	18%	13%	.396
Sep 13	84	5%	6%	36%	.507
Sep 7	66	37%	18%	5%	.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameTEX @ MIN →Target Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	44%	93.8	+13.9″	+13.0″
Sweeper	Breaking	19%	80.9	-13.6″	+1.1″
Splitter	Offspeed	14%	88.1	+16.1″	+4.7″
Curveball	Breaking	10%	79.8	-10.4″	-8.3″
Sinker	Hard	7%	93.4	+16.7″	+9.7″
Slider	Breaking	6%	87.2	-0.2″	+5.5″

The lineup he faces

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Brandon Nimmo27%

2Josh Jung23%

3Corey Seager21%

4Wyatt Langford23%

5Ezequiel Duran25%

6Nicky Lopez18%

7Jake Burger28%

8Evan Carter25%

9Danny Jansen19%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-2 pts

Curveball+10 pts

Sweeper+1 pts

Splitter-3 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Slider-4 pts

Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	44%	41%	13.2%	15.9%	18.0%
Curveball	10%	21%	24.1%	14.0%	20.0%
Sweeper	19%	21%	33.3%	23.2%	19.3%
Splitter	14%	11%	11.1%	10.0%	19.0%
Sinker	7%	4%	0.0%	9.1%	17.0%
Slider	6%	2%	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts5BTB expected 6.4 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	TEX	5.1	6.5	25.9%	42.7%	not settled
Sep 19	LAA	6.4	6.5	46.2%	43.8%	5