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Jorge Mateo

TB · Hitter · 3 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Jorge Mateo · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.200.180.14340.0%0.0%22.2%86.790.50.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1019.158.158.158.142.07836.8%0.0%34.3%82.490.50.0%0.0%8.3%
Last 30 G1836.147.194.176.174.17622.2%5.6%25.0%82.395.40.0%3.8%23.1%
90 days2040.158.200.184.179.18825.0%5.0%24.1%83.7102.30.0%10.7%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.143.129.02885.7%0.0%35.0%58.458.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1127.080.115.080.104.13951.9%0.0%32.2%73.0101.90.0%8.3%33.3%
Last 30 G2351.130.180.217.183.22643.1%3.9%35.5%79.8102.77.7%26.9%42.3%
90 days2760.130.186.204.182.22541.7%5.0%36.7%79.3102.79.7%25.8%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 26%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.167.167.167.150.07666.7%0.0%31.0%79.790.50.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1546.114.133.114.120.11345.7%0.0%33.0%77.7101.90.0%4.2%20.8%
Last 30 G3087.138.186.200.179.20534.5%4.6%31.5%81.0102.73.8%15.4%32.7%
90 days34100.141.192.196.181.21035.0%5.0%31.9%81.4102.75.1%18.6%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 17%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker92.258.4-75.199Single
Sep 22LHPSlider88.288.7-7.167Out
Sep 16LHPSinker91.690.510.525Single
Sep 16LHPFastball91.881.053.023Out
Sep 15LHPCurveball73.974.0-6.088Single
Sep 12RHPFastball98.190.821.272Out
Sep 11RHPSinker90.852.79.141Double play
Sep 11RHPSinker93.985.741.008Out
Sep 10LHPChangeup85.882.639.026Out
Sep 10LHPCutter83.978.864.015Out
Sep 9RHPSlider86.233.8-48–Sac bunt
Sep 9RHPSlider86.570.521.887Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411003
Sep 22200001
Sep 19200002
Sep 18100001
Sep 16311001
Sep 15311002
Sep 12300002
Sep 11300000
Sep 10300001
Sep 9411001
FormCold
Contact rating1Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.180 / .204running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.239
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%19.0%
K%31.4%
BB%5.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jorge Mateo · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Jorge Mateo · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Brayan Bello: 35.9% · no hitSep 23 vs Gerrit Cole: 47.6% · 1 HSep 25 vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45.6% · not settledSep 19Sep 25

Hits in 1 of 2 settled games; the projections added up to 0.8. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

2 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 2BTB expected 0.8
Games with 2+ TB0 of 2BTB expected 0.5
Games with a HR0 of 2BTB expected 0.1
Talent gradeFwOBA .239 · K% 31.4%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Cristopher Sánchez45.6%21.1%5.4%not settled
Sep 23Gerrit Cole47.6%24.3%7.2%4110
Sep 19Brayan Bello35.9%22.0%6.1%2000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.