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Matt McLain

CIN · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Matt McLain · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.333.333.556.378.20522.2%0.0%21.1%85.695.80.0%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1232.094.094.156.110.13234.4%0.0%29.8%83.695.80.0%10.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2675.103.162.221.189.19229.3%4.0%27.3%85.3104.64.3%27.7%25.5%
90 days49136.139.207.279.226.24731.6%5.9%29.8%84.5106.67.4%32.1%34.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.250.250.250.225.19950.0%0.0%22.7%77.8107.20.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G919.333.368.556.397.28131.6%5.3%25.5%84.2107.28.3%41.7%50.0%
Last 30 G1938.306.342.528.376.29028.9%5.3%19.3%85.7107.412.0%40.0%40.0%
90 days3362.246.295.439.327.26529.0%6.5%21.5%81.2107.410.3%28.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 21%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.294.294.412.306.20235.3%0.0%22.0%82.7107.20.0%27.3%54.5%
Last 15 G1551.180.196.300.219.18833.3%2.0%27.9%83.8107.23.1%21.9%31.2%
Last 30 G30113.173.223.327.252.22529.2%4.4%24.2%85.5107.46.9%31.9%30.6%
90 days56198.173.235.330.257.25330.8%6.1%27.0%83.4107.48.3%30.8%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 19%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 13%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.180.9-37.053Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.078.98.314Single
Sep 24RHPSplitter83.478.1-14.075Out
Sep 23LHPSlider81.057.632.309Single
Sep 23RHPSinker97.895.828.447Triple
Sep 22RHPFastball93.994.540.053Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball84.487.038.014Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.283.718.885Single
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.298.98.580Single
Sep 20LHPFastball94.247.532.112Force out
Sep 20LHPFastball94.0107.25.589Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.077.1-44.131Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 23424002
Sep 22411001
Sep 20311000
Sep 19200002
Sep 18400000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16412002
Sep 15300003
Sep 11300001
FormCold
Contact rating8Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.249 / .259results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.276
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%20.3%
K%30.1%
BB%7.2%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Matt McLain · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Matt McLain · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Clay Holmes: 38.5% · no hitSep 19 vs Matthew Boyd: 43.4% · no hitSep 20 vs David Peterson: 40.3% · 1 HSep 22 vs JR Ritchie: 37.7% · 1 HSep 23 vs Chris Sale: 49.1% · 2 HSep 24 vs Tyler Mahle: 50.6% · 1 HSep 18Sep 24

Hits in 4 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 2.6. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit4 of 6BTB expected 2.6
Games with 2+ TB1 of 6BTB expected 1.5
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.6
Talent gradeFwOBA .276 · K% 30.1%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 24Tyler Mahle50.6%25.4%10.6%4110
Sep 23Chris Sale49.1%26.4%8.7%4240
Sep 22JR Ritchie37.7%23.1%8.8%4110
Sep 20David Peterson40.3%28.8%9.5%3110
Sep 19Matthew Boyd43.4%30.4%11.2%2000
Sep 18Clay Holmes38.5%20.5%8.0%3000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.