Clay Holmes

CHC · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 12:05 PM CT

Clay HolmesRHP · CHC vs BOS

3.3projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.7 batters over 5.3 innings

Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.3%

BB%11.4%

Whiff%8.9%

Velo87.8

BTB Stuff99

Location97

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker47%9292.34.0%

Sweeper17%8680.45.0%

Changeup15%9387.014.8%

Cutter14%15384.723.5%

Curveball5%9580.211.1%

Fastball2%5992.86.2%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 18	98	17%	8%	17%	.300
Sep 12	100	22%	15%	26%	.358
Sep 6	80	9%	5%	30%	.404

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCHC @ BOS →Fenway Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Sinker	Hard	47%	92.4	+15.7″	+1.8″
Sweeper	Breaking	17%	80.6	-15.7″	-3.6″
Changeup	Offspeed	15%	87.0	+8.9″	-1.4″
Cutter	Hard	14%	84.5	-1.3″	-3.1″
Curveball	Breaking	5%	80.2	-9.7″	-13.7″

The lineup he faces

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Roman Anthony31%

2Mickey Gasper16%

3Connor Wong31%

4Adley Rutschman22%

5Wilyer Abreu24%

6Caleb Durbin14%

7Nick Sogard20%

8Jarren Duran26%

9Andruw Monasterio18%

10Isiah Kiner-Falefa20%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+9 pts

Sweeper+4 pts

Sinker-26 pts

Cutter+2 pts

Curveball+8 pts

Fastball+4 pts

Clay Holmes with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	15%	24%	34.8%	18.2%	18.6%
Sweeper	17%	21%	12.5%	7.9%	19.3%
Sinker	47%	20%	13.8%	16.2%	17.0%
Cutter	14%	16%	41.2%	28.6%	17.9%
Curveball	5%	13%	33.3%	21.7%	20.0%
Fastball	2%	6%	0.0%	0.0%	18.0%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts7BTB expected 8.4 over 2 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 2over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Clay Holmes · projection vs strikeouts, every startProjectedOver the lineUnderBook line

7 strikeouts in 2 settled starts against 8.4 projected. A few starts say little about the model on their own.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	BOS	3.6	4.5	28.0%	45.1%	3
Sep 18	CIN	4.8	4.5	51.5%	49.0%	4