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Miguel Vargas

CWS · Hitter · 7 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Miguel Vargas · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.3230.0%14.3%0.0%88.895.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1125.238.320.238.264.26124.0%12.0%17.1%86.6107.50.0%31.2%25.0%
Last 30 G1734.259.382.259.309.29220.6%17.6%16.4%85.9107.50.0%28.6%28.6%
90 days50102.226.343.417.339.35720.6%15.7%17.5%91.4111.09.2%46.2%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.364.588.636.524.47123.5%35.3%27.3%87.1102.714.3%42.9%71.4%
Last 15 G1543.286.419.571.424.40918.6%18.6%23.4%85.7105.314.8%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G30101.291.396.442.374.36418.8%14.9%16.9%87.5106.47.5%34.3%35.8%
90 days77250.271.380.495.384.37718.0%14.4%19.1%89.8111.211.4%41.3%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 24%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.353.542.529.475.42816.7%29.2%20.7%87.9102.77.7%38.5%53.8%
Last 15 G1568.268.382.446.365.35520.6%16.2%21.2%86.0107.59.3%32.6%30.2%
Last 30 G30135.283.393.398.358.34619.3%15.6%16.8%87.1107.55.7%33.0%34.1%
90 days78352.259.369.473.371.37118.8%14.8%18.6%90.2111.210.8%42.7%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 232 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 22%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 15%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker92.0102.714.794Single
Sep 24RHPSinker91.196.313.907Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.064.228.725Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.795.666.020Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.060.214.179Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.676.710.301Double play
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.495.2-6.241Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.082.4-21.041Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.293.874.006Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.488.920.475Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup86.893.96.487Single
Sep 19RHPSlider92.1102.2331.116Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24622013
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20511031
Sep 19414120
Sep 18526101
Sep 17400011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511010
Sep 14525110
FormCold
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .377results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.356
Barrel%6.9%
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%19.0%
BB%13.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Miguel Vargas · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Miguel Vargas · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Andrew Sears: 64.2% · 2 HSep 19 vs Jackson Jobe: 63.2% · 1 HSep 20 vs Troy Melton: 64.1% · 1 HSep 22 vs Daniel Lynch IV: 66.4% · 1 HSep 23 vs Seth Lugo: 68.4% · 1 HSep 24 vs Randy Dobnak: 64.3% · 2 HSep 25 vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 67.3% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 6 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.9. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit6 of 6BTB expected 3.9
Games with 2+ TB3 of 6BTB expected 2.4
Games with a HR2 of 6BTB expected 0.9
Talent gradeBwOBA .356 · K% 19.0%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Tomoyuki Sugano67.3%42.8%17.4%not settled
Sep 24Randy Dobnak64.3%34.4%14.7%6220
Sep 23Seth Lugo68.4%40.3%15.1%4110
Sep 22Daniel Lynch IV66.4%42.6%14.0%5110
Sep 20Troy Melton64.1%42.5%13.8%5110
Sep 19Jackson Jobe63.2%41.4%14.4%4141
Sep 18Andrew Sears64.2%38.6%14.4%5261
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.