MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 9Jordan Lawlar
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.280wOBA vs RHP.275xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Jordan Lawlar: wOBA .351 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Jordan Lawlar: wOBA .304 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Jordan Lawlar: wOBA .276 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Jordan Lawlar: wOBA .348 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Jordan Lawlar: wOBA .271 vs league .278 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jordan Lawlar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jordan Lawlar's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 81.6 mph at 74°Home run: 97.6 mph at 39°Out: 99.0 mph at 6°Out: 101.6 mph at 17°Out: 98.4 mph at -1°Out: 97.8 mph at 32°Double: 89.9 mph at 1°Out: 93.3 mph at -26°Triple: 103.9 mph at 16°Out: 55.9 mph at 27°Out: 29.3 mph at 33°Single: 54.7 mph at 35°Single: 105.5 mph at -23°Home run: 104.0 mph at 27°Out: 80.2 mph at 44°Out: 83.7 mph at 27°Double: 103.5 mph at 24°Out: 84.8 mph at 59°Double: 104.6 mph at 24°Out: 42.9 mph at -63°Out: 91.9 mph at 10°Out: 98.9 mph at -3°Single: 103.8 mph at 14°Out: 90.4 mph at 47°Out: 100.0 mph at 0°Single: 79.4 mph at 8°Out: 72.6 mph at 11°Out: 79.9 mph at 30°Out: 100.7 mph at 8°Out: 93.9 mph at 34°Out: 81.1 mph at -9°Home run: 101.8 mph at 38°Single: 92.2 mph at 13°Out: 78.7 mph at 51°Single: 89.5 mph at -14°Out: 91.6 mph at 28°Out: 94.2 mph at -5°Out: 91.0 mph at 61°Out: 80.4 mph at 24°Home run: 99.8 mph at 27°
40% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.3%52.9%+1.4
2+ total bases29.2%28.4%+0.8
Home run10.1%9.8%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jordan Lawlar hits
Jordan Lawlar · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .159 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 11 pitches seen.245xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .476 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 6 pitches seen.320xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .161 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.233xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .628 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 10 pitches seen.364xwOBA .418 shrunk (raw .481 on 6 PA) · league .386 · 15 pitches seen.418xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .291 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 8 pitches seen.315xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.284xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .170 on 6 PA) · league .351 · 13 pitches seen.291xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .120 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 14 pitches seen.249xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .339 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 33 pitches seen.363xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .212 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 13 pitches seen.262xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.243xwOBA .229 shrunk (raw .153 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 42 pitches seen.229
vs RHP · 192 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 20%60%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 14%100%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 13%25%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 58% of 12 swings · league 49%58%
vs RHP · 192 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 62%46%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 66%91%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 65%33%Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 36% of 33 pitches · league 24%36%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 40%23%Swings at 29% of 42 pitches · league 32%29%
vs RHP · 192 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jordan Lawlar against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.351.35824.1%17.5%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.304.31227.2%28.5%6Little history vs this shape
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.276.28334.7%31.7%2Little history vs this shape
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.348.35620.1%14.3%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.271.27828.3%29.7%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jordan Lawlar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.333.3331.000.539.26722.2%0.0%26.1%89.4103.90.0%57.1%42.9%
Last 15 G1329.259.310.593.378.27831.0%0.0%29.3%88.3105.55.6%50.0%44.4%
Last 30 G2249.196.245.391.274.24234.7%0.0%27.8%88.6105.53.4%34.5%37.9%
90 days2249.196.245.391.274.24234.7%0.0%27.8%88.6105.53.4%34.5%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 14%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.000.000.000.000.21333.3%0.0%36.4%80.7101.60.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1219.167.211.278.216.34536.8%5.3%36.4%85.4104.618.2%45.5%54.5%
Last 30 G2240.270.308.568.374.36130.0%5.0%24.6%82.8104.615.4%34.6%46.2%
90 days2240.270.308.568.374.36130.0%5.0%24.6%82.8104.615.4%34.6%46.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 31%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.600.323.24626.7%0.0%29.4%86.2103.90.0%54.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1548.222.271.467.314.30433.3%2.1%31.9%87.2105.510.3%48.3%48.3%
Last 30 G2889.229.273.470.319.29532.6%2.2%26.4%85.9105.59.1%34.5%41.8%
90 days2889.229.273.470.319.29532.6%2.2%26.4%85.9105.59.1%34.5%41.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
Jordan Lawlar · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating38Below average
Last 100 pitches70trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .304results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.881.674.003Out
Sep 25RHPSinker92.597.639.213Home run
Sep 25RHPSlider85.499.06.549Double play
Sep 23LHPSlider85.9101.617.459Out
Sep 22LHPFastball89.998.4-1.437Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.197.832.529Out
Sep 22RHPCutter90.689.91.303Double
Sep 20LHPSinker88.793.3-26.102Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.3103.916.591Triple
Sep 19RHPSinker99.155.927.219Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.729.333.280Out
Sep 15RHPSinker94.454.735.186Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414101
Sep 23100000
Sep 22412001
Sep 20200001
Sep 19413001
Sep 15511004
Sep 14425101
Sep 13412010
Sep 12200001
Sep 11412000

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Jordan Lawlar bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jordan Lawlar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.3%42.4%
Whiff%24.9%22.2%
Contact%75.1%77.8%
Chase%39.1%39.9%
wOBA.227.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.2%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.290
K%29.7%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%22.0%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

47 PA
wOBA.280
xwOBA vs this mix.275against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%21.0%
K%31.1%
BB%4.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Lawlar: every projection we've made →