MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 2Ketel Marte
Switch hitterTalent grade BContactHot
.304wOBA vs RHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .345 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .342 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .273 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .346 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Ketel Marte: wOBA .296 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ketel Marte's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ketel Marte's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 57.0 mph at -46°Out: 96.4 mph at 55°Out: 104.9 mph at -5°Out: 102.9 mph at 3°Double: 105.2 mph at 23°Out: 83.0 mph at 60°Out: 104.4 mph at -12°Out: 97.1 mph at -24°Single: 70.0 mph at -48°Out: 88.8 mph at 19°Single: 101.2 mph at -24°Out: 82.9 mph at -38°Out: 96.2 mph at -21°Out: 84.1 mph at 77°Out: 57.5 mph at -83°Single: 95.8 mph at 12°Out: 92.2 mph at -5°Single: 107.1 mph at 4°Out: 95.8 mph at 54°Out: 87.8 mph at -2°Out: 94.5 mph at -14°Out: 93.7 mph at 45°Out: 47.5 mph at -38°Out: 82.3 mph at 52°Single: 106.1 mph at 9°Out: 87.1 mph at -36°Double: 98.9 mph at 14°Double: 104.4 mph at 13°Out: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 91.5 mph at 34°Out: 103.7 mph at 31°Out: 86.1 mph at 36°Out: 104.4 mph at -21°Out: 97.2 mph at 55°Out: 89.6 mph at 60°Out: 85.6 mph at 21°Double: 109.6 mph at -10°Out: 94.9 mph at -12°Out: 90.0 mph at 17°Single: 37.0 mph at 43°
48% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.3%66.7%+1.6
2+ total bases41.6%40.1%+1.5
Home run14.6%13.4%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ketel Marte hits
Ketel Marte · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .072 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.193xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .302 on 15 PA) · league .307 · 37 pitches seen.304xwOBA .195 shrunk (raw .114 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.195xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .222 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 62 pitches seen.266xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .344 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.356xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .504 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 27 pitches seen.404xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .288 on 17 PA) · league .308 · 34 pitches seen.296xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .182 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 47 pitches seen.245xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .383 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.319xwOBA .434 shrunk (raw .474 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 133 pitches seen.434xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .226 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.255xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .267 on 33 PA) · league .263 · 152 pitches seen.266xwOBA .410 shrunk (raw .484 on 22 PA) · league .274 · 134 pitches seen.410
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 20%19%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 19%5%Whiff 3% of 37 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 9% of 47 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 17% of 35 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 26% of 19 swings · league 28%26%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 29% of 62 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 31% of 42 swings · league 49%31%
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 53% of 36 pitches · league 62%53%Swings at 70% of 37 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 73% of 30 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 60% of 62 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 87% of 54 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 74% of 27 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 71% of 34 pitches · league 65%71%Swings at 75% of 47 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 44% of 36 pitches · league 60%44%Swings at 14% of 133 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 31% of 29 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 41% of 152 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 31% of 134 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ketel Marte against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.345.35510.7%16.8%53About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.342.35216.9%22.9%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.273.28322.6%26.9%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.346.35610.9%16.9%48About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.296.30622.8%30.3%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ketel Marte · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.200.294.267.315.3880.0%11.8%14.8%90.8107.16.7%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1554.163.241.265.252.3319.3%9.3%10.2%90.5109.64.7%44.2%27.9%
Last 30 G29102.207.324.356.320.33510.8%13.7%12.0%89.0109.66.7%38.7%33.3%
90 days59217.204.295.346.293.30815.2%9.7%16.1%87.6111.45.7%36.1%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.500.600.500.500.2830.0%20.0%10.0%90.0104.90.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G717.429.471.500.428.3350.0%11.8%12.1%91.3111.36.7%46.7%20.0%
Last 30 G1631.385.452.538.436.3666.5%9.7%12.9%92.2111.38.0%44.0%24.0%
90 days2956.327.393.571.418.3708.9%8.9%20.4%91.6116.811.1%40.0%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 18%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.263.364.316.357.3640.0%13.6%13.5%90.7107.15.3%57.9%15.8%
Last 15 G1571.222.296.317.293.3327.0%9.9%10.7%90.7111.35.2%44.8%25.9%
Last 30 G30133.248.353.398.346.3429.8%12.8%12.2%89.8111.37.0%40.0%31.0%
90 days61273.229.315.392.317.32013.9%9.5%17.0%88.5116.86.9%36.9%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 203 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 14%
Ketel Marte · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating57Average
Last 100 pitches50trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.325 / .325results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter86.357.0-46.226Out
Sep 25RHPFastball93.096.455.014Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.8104.9-5.382Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.3102.93.534Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4105.2231.474Double
Sep 24RHPSlider83.683.060.008Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.2104.4-12.278Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.097.1-24.100Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.070.0-48.200Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.888.819.555Error
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.5101.2-24.126Single
Sep 22RHPSinker92.682.9-38.067Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500010
Sep 24412020
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511000
Sep 20422000
Sep 19400011
Sep 18400001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15624000
Sep 14512000

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Ketel Marte bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Ketel Marte with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.9%41.0%
Whiff%18.7%21.3%
Contact%81.3%78.7%
Chase%39.0%39.6%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.0%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.344
K%14.8%
BB%9.5%
Whiff%8.6%
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/100-0.34
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%16.2%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ketel Marte: every projection we've made →