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Ketel Marte

ARI · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Ketel Marte · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.200.333.267.336.3825.6%16.7%12.9%92.0107.17.1%50.0%21.4%
Last 15 G1553.191.283.298.287.3419.4%11.3%9.3%91.0109.64.9%43.9%29.3%
Last 30 G29103.205.320.352.316.32511.7%13.6%12.0%89.1109.66.7%36.0%34.7%
90 days59218.208.298.365.300.31415.6%9.6%16.5%87.9111.47.0%36.7%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.667.667.600.1120.0%0.0%0.0%85.1101.20.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G718.375.389.438.362.2695.6%5.6%12.5%90.4111.36.2%37.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1529.400.448.560.443.3536.9%6.9%12.3%91.6111.38.3%41.7%25.0%
90 days2854.333.389.583.421.3639.3%7.4%20.4%91.3116.811.4%38.6%29.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 18%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.278.381.333.374.3434.8%14.3%11.1%90.8107.15.9%47.1%17.6%
Last 15 G1571.238.310.333.306.3238.5%9.9%10.3%90.8111.35.3%42.1%28.1%
Last 30 G30132.248.348.398.343.33110.6%12.1%12.1%89.7111.37.1%37.4%32.3%
90 days61272.233.316.408.323.32414.3%9.2%17.3%88.7116.87.9%37.1%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4105.2231.474Double
Sep 24RHPSlider83.683.060.008Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.2104.4-12.278Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.097.1-24.100Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.070.0-48.200Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.888.819.555Error
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.5101.2-24.126Single
Sep 22RHPSinker92.682.9-38.067Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.896.2-21.103Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.484.177.010Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper80.257.5-83.142Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.895.812.900Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412020
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511000
Sep 20422000
Sep 19400011
Sep 18400001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15624000
Sep 14512000
Sep 13511011
FormHot
Contact rating53Average
Last 100 pitches48steady
wOBA / xwOBA.323 / .320results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.342
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%14.7%
BB%9.6%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Ketel Marte · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Ketel Marte · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Gerrit Cole: 66.6% · no hitSep 19 vs Cam Schlittler: 62.8% · no hitSep 22 vs Kyle Freeland: 70.6% · 1 HSep 23 vs Mason Adams: 69.1% · 1 HSep 24 vs Tanner Gordon: 67.6% · 1 HSep 25 vs Casey Mize: 68.8% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 5BTB expected 3.4
Games with 2+ TB1 of 5BTB expected 2.0
Games with a HR0 of 5BTB expected 0.7
Talent gradeBwOBA .342 · K% 14.7%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Casey Mize68.8%42.8%15.8%not settled
Sep 24Tanner Gordon67.6%39.5%17.0%4120
Sep 23Mason Adams69.1%41.7%15.1%4110
Sep 22Kyle Freeland70.6%47.1%14.6%5110
Sep 19Cam Schlittler62.8%37.8%11.6%4000
Sep 18Gerrit Cole66.6%37.0%11.8%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.