MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 6Nolan Arenado
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.353wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .370 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .323 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .295 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .368 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .290 vs league .278 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nolan Arenado's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nolan Arenado's last 40 balls in playHit (22)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 101.3 mph at 31°Out: 73.5 mph at -1°Out: 87.1 mph at -32°Single: 91.6 mph at 18°Single: 73.3 mph at 47°Home run: 102.5 mph at 30°Out: 56.1 mph at -46°Single: 98.0 mph at 11°Out: 81.5 mph at -7°Double: 107.3 mph at 17°Home run: 106.2 mph at 25°Single: 103.8 mph at 12°Out: 65.6 mph at 54°Out: 96.3 mph at 41°Out: 87.4 mph at -21°Home run: 100.3 mph at 36°Single: 68.6 mph at 23°Out: 88.5 mph at 63°Single: 82.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at 28°Out: 84.1 mph at 51°Single: 73.3 mph at 41°Single: 79.3 mph at 18°Single: 91.0 mph at 9°Home run: 105.7 mph at 21°Out: 83.5 mph at 55°Out: 62.4 mph at -53°Out: 86.5 mph at 41°Single: 79.2 mph at 7°Out: 85.8 mph at 17°Single: 74.2 mph at 9°Out: 78.2 mph at 83°Out: 96.1 mph at 2°Home run: 94.4 mph at 30°Double: 105.4 mph at 1°Out: 93.3 mph at 38°Double: 101.4 mph at 21°Home run: 97.7 mph at 32°Home run: 106.5 mph at 28°Out: 96.2 mph at -6°
38% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot55% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%60.8%+2.6
2+ total bases37.4%35.1%+2.3
Home run14.1%12.7%+1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nolan Arenado hits
Nolan Arenado · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .278 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.275xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .384 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.335xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .284 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 27 pitches seen.271xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .190 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.263xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .324 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 61 pitches seen.345xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .223 on 27 PA) · league .321 · 59 pitches seen.253xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .615 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.385xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .467 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.415xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .273 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 62 pitches seen.281xwOBA .420 shrunk (raw .443 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.420xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .292 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 59 pitches seen.281xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .319 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 67 pitches seen.292xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .216 on 58 PA) · league .274 · 241 pitches seen.226
vs RHP · 843 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 22%8%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 19%14%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 4% of 45 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 19% of 42 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 22% of 32 swings · league 13%22%Whiff 23% of 35 swings · league 17%23%Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 28%15%Whiff 31% of 16 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 27% of 30 swings · league 32%27%Whiff 42% of 82 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 843 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 39% of 33 pitches · league 62%39%Swings at 58% of 36 pitches · league 72%58%Swings at 52% of 27 pitches · league 66%52%Swings at 55% of 33 pitches · league 70%55%Swings at 74% of 61 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 71% of 59 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 65% of 49 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 56% of 62 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 28% of 97 pitches · league 24%28%Swings at 27% of 59 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 45% of 67 pitches · league 40%45%Swings at 34% of 241 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 843 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nolan Arenado against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.370.35816.3%17.5%46About league average vs these
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.323.31226.6%28.5%40About league average vs these
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.295.28329.2%31.7%14About league average vs these
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.368.35613.2%14.3%53About league average vs these
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.290.27827.8%29.7%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nolan Arenado · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.375.444.938.611.40327.8%5.6%28.0%87.8106.227.3%45.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1547.375.468.700.512.38621.3%10.6%24.7%86.5108.513.3%30.0%50.0%
Last 30 G3090.275.348.525.389.30418.9%7.8%23.9%84.1108.57.9%23.8%33.3%
90 days71219.251.330.497.362.29919.6%9.1%22.5%84.3108.57.2%29.6%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 16%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.600.6001.400.830.4910.0%0.0%10.0%93.3107.320.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1116.533.5621.467.812.4836.2%6.2%26.5%92.0107.314.3%50.0%42.9%
Last 30 G1833.355.394.806.497.31415.2%6.1%24.6%88.3107.37.7%38.5%30.8%
90 days4177.314.377.729.458.29523.4%9.1%24.1%88.1107.39.6%38.5%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 14%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.429.4781.048.659.42221.7%4.3%22.9%89.5107.325.0%50.0%43.8%
Last 15 G1563.418.492.909.588.41117.5%9.5%25.2%88.2108.513.6%36.4%47.7%
Last 30 G30123.297.361.604.418.30717.9%7.3%24.1%85.3108.57.9%28.1%32.6%
90 days73296.268.342.558.387.29820.6%9.1%22.9%85.2108.57.8%31.9%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 204 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 16%
Nolan Arenado · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .310running 72 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run6/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.0101.3311.019Home run
Sep 25LHPChangeup89.073.5-1.087Out
Sep 25RHPSlider88.287.1-32.044Force out
Sep 24RHPSlider86.291.618.560Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.673.347.174Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.7102.5301.170Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter90.056.1-46.159Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.098.011.821Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.381.5-7.089Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball81.6107.317.684Double
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.5106.2251.766Home run
Sep 22LHPSinker90.3103.812.942Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25514110
Sep 24536101
Sep 23411002
Sep 22537101
Sep 20414101
Sep 19422001
Sep 18422000
Sep 16425100
Sep 15311000
Sep 14411003

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Nolan Arenado bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nolan Arenado with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%42.4%
Whiff%21.5%22.2%
Contact%78.5%77.8%
Chase%45.3%39.9%
wOBA.230.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.5%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.356
K%20.0%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/1001.10
Hard-hit%20.9%
K%20.2%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nolan Arenado: every projection we've made →