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Nolan Arenado
ARI · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.
Statcast
by window and pitcher handNolan Arenado · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 18 | .389 | .389 | .722 | .522 | .341 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 31.0% | 84.7 | 106.2 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 45 | .375 | .444 | .625 | .479 | .378 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 24.4% | 86.9 | 108.5 | 10.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 88 | .262 | .322 | .475 | .359 | .290 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 23.6% | 83.7 | 108.5 | 6.3% | 22.2% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 71 | 218 | .250 | .323 | .485 | .354 | .291 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 22.3% | 83.9 | 108.5 | 6.5% | 28.8% | 32.0% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 16%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 4 | .750 | .750 | 1.750 | 1.038 | .592 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 98.2 | 107.3 | 25.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 11 | 18 | .562 | .611 | 1.438 | .811 | .482 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 27.5% | 92.2 | 107.3 | 14.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 30 G | 18 | 35 | .364 | .400 | .788 | .494 | .317 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 27.0% | 88.4 | 107.3 | 7.4% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 40 | 76 | .319 | .382 | .739 | .464 | .298 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 24.4% | 88.4 | 107.3 | 9.8% | 39.2% | 33.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 14%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 22 | .455 | .455 | .909 | .616 | .386 | 27.3% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 88.1 | 107.3 | 18.8% | 43.8% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 63 | .429 | .492 | .857 | .574 | .407 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 25.4% | 88.6 | 108.5 | 11.4% | 38.6% | 50.0% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 123 | .292 | .344 | .566 | .398 | .298 | 18.7% | 6.5% | 24.7% | 85.1 | 108.5 | 6.7% | 26.7% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 73 | 294 | .268 | .338 | .551 | .383 | .293 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 22.9% | 85.0 | 108.5 | 7.4% | 31.4% | 32.4% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 204 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 16%
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Slider | 86.2 | 91.6 | 18 | .560 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 90.6 | 73.3 | 47 | .174 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 93.7 | 102.5 | 30 | 1.170 | Home run |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Cutter | 90.0 | 56.1 | -46 | .159 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.0 | 98.0 | 11 | .821 | Single |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 87.3 | 81.5 | -7 | .089 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Curveball | 81.6 | 107.3 | 17 | .684 | Double |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sweeper | 83.5 | 106.2 | 25 | 1.766 | Home run |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Sinker | 90.3 | 103.8 | 12 | .942 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 95.8 | 65.6 | 54 | .015 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sweeper | 84.0 | 96.3 | 41 | .053 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sweeper | 82.7 | 87.4 | -21 | .048 | Fielder's choice |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 22 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .310running 71 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run6/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Talent
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.356
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.6%
K%20.1%
BB%8.6%
A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.
xwOBA29.293
Avg EV1885.0
Max EV37108.5
Barrel%587.4%
Hard-hit%2231.4%
Sweet-spot%2932.4%
K%5920.7%
BB%558.8%
Whiff%4922.9%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
Hits in 5 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.0. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.
Predicted vs what happened
5 settled gamesGames with a hit5 of 5BTB expected 3.0
Games with 2+ TB4 of 5BTB expected 1.8
Games with a HR2 of 5BTB expected 0.6
Talent gradeNeuwOBA .356 · K% 20.1%
One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.
| Date | Facing | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | H | TB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Casey Mize | 62.7% | 37.1% | 14.6% | not settled | |||
| Sep 24 | Tanner Gordon | 62.1% | 34.9% | 14.9% | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | Mason Adams | 63.4% | 37.3% | 13.6% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | Kyle Freeland | 63.8% | 43.7% | 15.5% | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | Cam Schlittler | 52.6% | 30.5% | 10.1% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | Gerrit Cole | 55.6% | 30.5% | 10.4% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |