MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 1Drake Baldwin
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.403wOBA vs RHP.385xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .353 vs league .319 (hitter's edge).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .365 vs league .331 (hitter's edge).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .392 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .384 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .358 vs league .324 (hitter's edge).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .350 vs league .316 (hitter's edge).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Drake Baldwin's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Drake Baldwin's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.9 mph at -28°Out: 84.4 mph at -14°Out: 96.2 mph at -7°Out: 104.4 mph at 30°Out: 106.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.9 mph at -10°Out: 104.6 mph at 26°Double: 100.8 mph at 0°Out: 60.2 mph at -82°Out: 94.0 mph at 30°Out: 94.3 mph at 22°Single: 56.8 mph at -80°Single: 105.6 mph at -6°Single: 102.7 mph at 6°Out: 88.5 mph at 45°Single: 65.9 mph at 26°Out: 58.5 mph at 4°Single: 101.6 mph at 3°Double: 107.3 mph at 22°Single: 62.4 mph at 24°Out: 85.8 mph at 44°Double: 105.8 mph at 26°Out: 95.4 mph at -5°Out: 93.1 mph at -13°Out: 99.7 mph at 35°Out: 64.0 mph at -63°Single: 97.3 mph at 6°Out: 58.8 mph at -57°Home run: 107.6 mph at 23°Out: 95.5 mph at 27°Single: 104.1 mph at 5°Single: 92.3 mph at 8°Out: 91.0 mph at 64°Single: 91.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.5 mph at 39°Out: 90.9 mph at 29°Double: 100.3 mph at 30°Out: 88.7 mph at -17°Single: 100.5 mph at 10°Out: 60.6 mph at 67°
45% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.7%70.2%+0.5
2+ total bases44.8%43.8%+0.9
Home run15.9%15.4%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+2.8
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Drake Baldwin hits
Drake Baldwin · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .176 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.254xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .491 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.399xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .040 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.207xwOBA .477 shrunk (raw .592 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.477xwOBA .577 shrunk (raw .712 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 58 pitches seen.577xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .329 on 22 PA) · league .321 · 56 pitches seen.326xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .302 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.305xwOBA .438 shrunk (raw .483 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 60 pitches seen.438xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .347 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.325xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .384 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 162 pitches seen.381xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .422 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 68 pitches seen.354xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .283 on 34 PA) · league .263 · 131 pitches seen.278xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .330 on 38 PA) · league .274 · 174 pitches seen.317
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 22%27%Whiff 28% of 29 swings · league 20%28%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 19%32%Whiff 17% of 29 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 10% of 48 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 7% of 46 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 8% of 50 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 39% of 28 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 20% of 60 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 43% of 77 swings · league 49%43%
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 29 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 69% of 42 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 83% of 58 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 82% of 56 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 83% of 60 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 84% of 43 pitches · league 60%84%Swings at 17% of 162 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 35% of 68 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 46% of 131 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 44% of 174 pitches · league 32%44%
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Drake Baldwin against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.353.31925.2%22.8%42Hits these better than most
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.365.33121.5%19.5%40Hits these better than most
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.392.35821.9%21.8%35Hits these better than most
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.384.34923.1%23.6%25Hits these better than most
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.358.32420.6%23.5%48Hits these better than most
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.350.31624.9%25.7%22Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Drake Baldwin · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.333.231.273.44420.0%6.7%28.6%93.0106.620.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1347.366.426.585.431.47914.9%6.4%19.1%89.6107.620.0%42.9%45.7%
Last 30 G2693.372.409.570.420.39922.6%4.3%27.4%90.2107.715.2%43.9%47.0%
90 days70233.345.416.539.419.39418.5%9.4%22.1%92.0109.212.2%51.8%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.429.356.24525.0%12.5%20.0%91.0105.60.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G923.238.304.333.287.27034.8%8.7%22.7%93.2106.40.0%53.8%38.5%
Last 30 G1943.225.279.300.262.25830.2%7.0%27.2%90.6106.40.0%44.4%44.4%
90 days55120.207.267.252.240.30520.8%6.7%22.8%89.9109.53.5%46.5%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 20%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.250.348.300.302.37521.7%8.7%26.7%92.3106.613.3%46.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1570.323.386.500.384.41021.4%7.1%20.1%90.5107.614.6%45.8%43.8%
Last 30 G30136.325.368.484.370.35525.0%5.1%27.3%90.3107.710.8%44.1%46.2%
90 days79353.297.365.438.358.36419.3%8.5%22.3%91.3109.59.2%50.0%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 250 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
Drake Baldwin · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating95Top tier
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .383running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup92.490.9-28.042Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.984.4-14.080Double play
Sep 25RHPChangeup91.396.2-7.187Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.8104.4301.594Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.6106.615.688Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.094.9-10.152Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.4104.6261.763Out
Sep 24LHPSinker93.5100.80.386Double
Sep 23LHPFastball91.860.2-82.140Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.294.030.236Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper84.094.322.215Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.756.8-80.123Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24523000
Sep 23500002
Sep 22422010
Sep 20511012
Sep 19534001
Sep 18523011
Sep 16400000
Sep 15525101
Sep 14422011

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Drake Baldwin bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Drake Baldwin with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.4%41.0%
Whiff%19.1%21.3%
Contact%80.9%78.7%
Chase%42.3%39.6%
wOBA.291.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.356
K%19.1%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%11.2%
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%35.1%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

233 PA
wOBA.403
xwOBA vs this mix.385against pitches like his
RV/1001.39
Hard-hit%35.4%
K%18.7%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Drake Baldwin: every projection we've made →