MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 3Heriberto Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.369wOBA vs LHP.396xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.3trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .352 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .333 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .369 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Heriberto Hernández's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Heriberto Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.4 mph at -15°Out: 97.1 mph at 80°Single: 101.4 mph at 8°Out: 96.0 mph at 35°Out: 100.8 mph at 37°Out: 84.3 mph at -17°Out: 95.1 mph at -20°Out: 81.1 mph at -49°Out: 101.7 mph at -22°Out: 99.9 mph at 40°Single: 107.5 mph at 6°Out: 94.7 mph at 21°Out: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 94.5 mph at 59°Out: 75.9 mph at 0°Single: 72.3 mph at 35°Out: 94.2 mph at 18°Single: 103.7 mph at 9°Out: 96.6 mph at 43°Single: 98.2 mph at -14°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Single: 85.3 mph at 18°Single: 85.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -31°Out: 74.7 mph at 1°Single: 102.1 mph at -8°Out: 78.8 mph at 32°Out: 74.4 mph at -30°Single: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.5 mph at 73°Out: 60.7 mph at -18°Single: 41.5 mph at -73°Single: 94.8 mph at 14°Out: 103.0 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 31°Out: 85.0 mph at 43°Out: 87.7 mph at -1°Out: 100.9 mph at -23°Out: 104.5 mph at 7°
45% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.3%59.1%+0.2
2+ total bases37.4%37.6%-0.2
Home run15.9%16.7%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.8
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Heriberto Hernández hits
Heriberto Hernández · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .189 shrunk (raw .081 on 6 PA) · league .243 · 21 pitches seen.189xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .287 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 12 pitches seen.293xwOBA .435 shrunk (raw .796 on 6 PA) · league .254 · 14 pitches seen.435xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .293 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.304xwOBA .589 shrunk (raw .860 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 24 pitches seen.589xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .292 on 12 PA) · league .340 · 23 pitches seen.316xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .041 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 18 pitches seen.227xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .225 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 20 pitches seen.296xwOBA .374 shrunk (raw .473 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 21 pitches seen.374xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .200 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 20 pitches seen.287xwOBA .436 shrunk (raw .590 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 61 pitches seen.436xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .426 on 16 PA) · league .289 · 84 pitches seen.367xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .233 on 5 PA) · league .257 · 47 pitches seen.250
vs LHP · 380 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 21%10%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 23%27%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 14%23%Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 16%27%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 25%13%Whiff 39% of 13 swings · league 29%39%Whiff 69% of 16 swings · league 48%69%Whiff 58% of 12 swings · league 34%58%
vs LHP · 380 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 21 pitches · league 63%71%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 71%83%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 64%79%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 67%80%Swings at 88% of 24 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 87% of 23 pitches · league 72%87%Swings at 39% of 18 pitches · league 59%39%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 71% of 21 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 40% of 20 pitches · league 30%40%Swings at 21% of 61 pitches · league 26%21%Swings at 19% of 84 pitches · league 31%19%Swings at 26% of 47 pitches · league 41%26%
vs LHP · 380 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Heriberto Hernández against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.352.34320.4%18.3%25About league average vs these
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.333.32535.2%31.1%9About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.369.36016.2%14.3%24About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Heriberto Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.143.129.21928.6%0.0%23.1%100.1107.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G716.125.125.125.112.29918.8%0.0%20.6%99.8107.57.7%84.6%15.4%
Last 30 G1843.205.279.359.283.40316.3%7.0%25.9%94.9111.321.9%56.2%25.0%
90 days4494.244.340.537.374.41321.3%11.7%27.7%94.0111.319.4%48.4%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 16%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.083.267.083.214.2946.7%20.0%17.4%92.6101.80.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1455.239.364.239.317.31021.8%16.4%26.8%88.7104.53.0%36.4%27.3%
Last 30 G2995.225.347.375.354.32226.3%14.7%27.7%88.1106.95.6%37.0%31.5%
90 days73223.219.314.408.342.31630.9%11.2%31.2%89.6109.211.1%46.8%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 126 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.105.227.105.186.26913.6%13.6%19.4%95.1107.50.0%60.0%13.3%
Last 15 G1571.210.310.210.270.30821.1%12.7%25.2%91.8107.54.3%50.0%23.9%
Last 30 G30138.218.326.370.331.34823.2%12.3%27.0%90.6111.311.6%44.2%29.1%
90 days74317.227.322.446.351.34528.1%11.4%30.2%91.0111.313.8%47.3%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 188 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 17%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
Heriberto Hernández · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.350 / .358results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.294.4-15.152Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.897.180.010Out
Sep 25RHPFastball99.4101.48.628Single
Sep 25RHPSinker94.696.035.313Out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.4100.837.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker100.484.3-17.066Force out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.395.1-20.117Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball92.281.1-49.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.1101.7-22.105Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.999.940.303Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.1107.56.584Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.694.721.278Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400020
Sep 22611011
Sep 20400001
Sep 19611022
Sep 18411002
Sep 16544001
Sep 15511001
Sep 14511011

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Heriberto Hernández bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Heriberto Hernández with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.5%41.5%
Whiff%21.9%21.6%
Contact%78.1%78.4%
Chase%37.1%39.9%
wOBA.266.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.349
K%27.6%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV90.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

93 PA
wOBA.369
xwOBA vs this mix.396against pitches like his
RV/1000.77
Hard-hit%30.2%
K%22.4%
BB%11.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Heriberto Hernández: every projection we've made →