MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 2Jakob Marsee
Bats leftTalent grade AvgContactCold
.345wOBA vs LHP.330xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .346 vs league .342 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .318 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .338 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jakob Marsee's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jakob Marsee's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.5 mph at 22°Out: 67.3 mph at -44°Single: 90.5 mph at 15°Triple: 98.7 mph at 28°Single: 85.2 mph at 18°Out: 75.0 mph at 47°Out: 94.4 mph at -1°Out: 78.1 mph at 60°Out: 92.3 mph at 40°Single: 93.2 mph at 12°Out: 60.6 mph at 78°Out: 90.0 mph at 82°Single: 94.7 mph at 11°Single: 71.2 mph at 37°Out: 70.8 mph at -19°Single: 99.7 mph at 2°Single: 84.1 mph at 18°Out: 88.1 mph at -7°Home run: 103.9 mph at 29°Double: 96.6 mph at 21°Out: 59.1 mph at 79°Out: 72.0 mph at 45°Home run: 96.3 mph at 30°Single: 89.1 mph at 12°Out: 77.4 mph at 29°Triple: 96.3 mph at 24°Out: 97.5 mph at 46°Out: 76.0 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 73°Single: 40.6 mph at -61°Out: 97.6 mph at -27°Out: 29.7 mph at -24°Out: 64.9 mph at -22°Single: 100.8 mph at 14°Out: 97.8 mph at -29°Single: 74.3 mph at 23°Out: 99.2 mph at 65°Single: 67.5 mph at 12°Single: 101.3 mph at 5°Single: 53.0 mph at 38°
33% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.2%62.9%+0.3
2+ total bases34.2%34.8%-0.6
Home run6.5%8.3%-1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jakob Marsee hits
Jakob Marsee · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .408 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.256xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .565 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.334xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .111 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 9 pitches seen.243xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .532 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.353xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .393 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 25 pitches seen.388xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .322 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.333xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .257 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.268xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .113 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 16 pitches seen.280xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .855 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.342xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.309xwOBA .426 shrunk (raw .563 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 23 pitches seen.426xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .257 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 68 pitches seen.272xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .375 on 11 PA) · league .257 · 34 pitches seen.313
vs LHP · 261 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 21%14%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 17%40%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 25%50%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 59% of 17 swings · league 48%59%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 34%13%
vs LHP · 261 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 71%78%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 64%78%Swings at 50% of 18 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 72% of 25 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 72%73%Swings at 33% of 15 pitches · league 59%33%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 66%33%Swings at 11% of 18 pitches · league 30%11%Swings at 17% of 23 pitches · league 26%17%Swings at 25% of 68 pitches · league 31%25%Swings at 44% of 34 pitches · league 41%44%
vs LHP · 261 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jakob Marsee against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.346.34213.4%17.6%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.318.31326.3%27.0%9About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.338.3347.6%10.2%20About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jakob Marsee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.429.425.47525.0%12.5%5.9%86.194.40.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1223.421.500.421.432.38826.1%4.3%12.5%78.499.70.0%14.3%35.7%
Last 30 G1939.281.395.312.338.33228.2%5.1%17.2%82.3100.10.0%27.3%40.9%
90 days3970.264.418.321.359.35624.3%12.9%18.2%82.3104.10.0%34.2%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 34%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.300.209.21227.3%9.1%23.8%85.2101.514.3%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1540.371.450.714.488.36415.0%12.5%15.3%86.1103.96.9%41.4%48.3%
Last 30 G3082.362.463.652.482.38913.4%14.6%13.1%87.4108.76.9%39.7%51.7%
90 days69208.272.370.461.372.32814.4%12.5%12.3%86.6108.74.7%34.5%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 28%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.235.316.353.300.32226.3%10.5%15.8%85.6101.58.3%16.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1563.389.468.611.468.37319.0%9.5%14.3%83.6103.94.7%32.6%44.2%
Last 30 G30121.337.442.545.436.37118.2%11.6%14.5%86.0108.75.0%36.2%48.8%
90 days71278.270.382.429.369.33516.9%12.6%13.8%85.7108.73.8%34.4%40.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 186 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
Jakob Marsee · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches36trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .332running 25 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.3101.522.675Out
Sep 25LHPSinker95.067.3-44.176Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.590.515.916Single
Sep 25RHPSlider83.898.728.780Triple
Sep 24LHPFastball94.385.218.855Single
Sep 24RHPFastball100.475.047.144Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.794.4-1.316Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.578.160.008Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.592.340.019Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.793.212.836Single
Sep 20RHPCutter88.160.678.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.890.082.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25424000
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400003
Sep 22311001
Sep 20400011
Sep 19533010
Sep 18411011
Sep 16426110
Sep 15400002
Sep 14438100

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Jakob Marsee bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jakob Marsee with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.3%44.1%
Whiff%23.2%22.7%
Contact%76.8%77.3%
Chase%34.3%38.2%
wOBA.236.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.7%18.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgContact type
wOBA.364
K%18.2%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%6.6%
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%23.4%
Avg EV86.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

69 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.330against pitches like his
RV/1000.30
Hard-hit%20.6%
K%24.7%
BB%12.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jakob Marsee: every projection we've made →