Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Paul Goldschmidt's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 62.3% | 62.8% | -0.5 |
| 2+ total bases | 36.2% | 36.3% | -0.1 |
| Home run | 11.5% | 10.6% | +0.9 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Paul Goldschmidt against each of Trevor Rogers's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 94.2 | +11″ / +15″ | .337 | .344 | 18.5% | 19.7% | 26 | About league average vs these |
| Changeup | 19% | 86.8 | +14″ / +1″ | .315 | .321 | 26.0% | 27.7% | 13 | About league average vs these |
| Sweeper | 17% | 78.1 | -11″ / +4″ | .321 | .327 | 22.7% | 25.0% | 6 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sinker | 9% | 93.6 | +17″ / +7″ | .363 | .369 | 12.9% | 13.5% | 16 | About league average vs these |
| Cutter | 6% | 83.9 | -4″ / +4″ | .311 | .317 | 25.4% | 25.9% | 9 | About league average vs these |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 45% | 20.9% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| Sweeper | 17% | 24% | 31.4% | 25.7% | 20.5% |
| Changeup | 19% | 16% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 9% | 10% | 18.2% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| Cutter | 6% | 4% | 30.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 38.4% | 41.5% |
| Whiff% | 20.1% | 21.6% |
| Contact% | 79.9% | 78.4% |
| Chase% | 38.2% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .244 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 18.7% | 20.2% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
86 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 99 | 37% | 16% | 22% | .152 |
| Sep 13 | 95 | 19% | 15% | 12% | .423 |
| Sep 7 | 104 | 23% | 14% | 15% | .221 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.