MLBengine v14
← All players

Trevor Rogers

BAL · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 3:05 PM CT
Trevor RogersLHP · BAL vs NYY
6.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 24.1 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.0%9%≤34 strikeouts: 9.6%10%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 15.0%15%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 12.7%13%89+ strikeouts: 25.7%26%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.7%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%12.3%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff100
Location113
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%10994.212.5%
Changeup19%7786.711.5%
Sweeper17%10778.015.1%
Sinker9%9193.77.0%
Cutter6%9383.512.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199937%16%22%.152
Sep 139519%15%12%.423
Sep 710423%14%15%.221

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameBAL @ NYY →Yankee Stadium

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves
PitchFamilyUsageVeloHorizontal breakInduced vertical break
FastballHard50%94.2+10.9″+15.0″
ChangeupOffspeed19%86.8+13.6″+1.1″
SweeperBreaking17%78.1-10.9″+3.6″
SinkerHard9%93.6+17.1″+7.4″
CutterHard6%83.9-4.0″+3.8″
Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.

The lineup he faces

Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters
Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPwith two strikes
Trevor Rogers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%45%20.9%23.6%18.6%
Sweeper17%24%31.4%25.7%20.5%
Changeup19%16%11.6%8.7%18.3%
Sinker9%10%18.2%22.2%17.7%
Cutter6%4%30.0%17.6%17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts14BTB expected 12.5 over 2 starts
BTB's side at the line0 of 2over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Trevor Rogers · projection vs strikeouts, every startProjectedOver the lineUnderBook line
0369Sep 19 vs MIL: projected 5.6, line 5.5Sep 19: 10 strikeouts19Sep 25 vs NYY: projected 6.9, line 6.5Sep 25: 4 strikeouts25

14 strikeouts in 2 settled starts against 12.5 projected. A few starts say little about the model on their own.

DateOpponentProjected KBook lineBTB overBook overStrikeouts
Sep 25NYY6.96.556.6%43.3%4
Sep 19MIL5.65.549.2%46.3%10
Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.