MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BOS · batting 2Mickey Gasper
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerCold
.469wOBA vs RHP.451xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CHCClay Holmes
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.3projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Clay Holmes's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 47% usage, 92.4 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +1.8″ rise. Mickey Gasper: wOBA .363 vs league .332 (hitter's edge).Sinker 47%Sweeper: 17% usage, 80.6 mph, -15.7″ arm side, -3.6″ rise. Mickey Gasper: wOBA .366 vs league .335 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 17%Changeup: 15% usage, 87.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Mickey Gasper: wOBA .293 vs league .262 (hitter's edge).Changeup 15%Cutter: 14% usage, 84.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -3.1″ rise. Mickey Gasper: wOBA .354 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Cutter 14%Curveball: 5% usage, 80.2 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Mickey Gasper: wOBA .335 vs league .304 (hitter's edge).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mickey Gasper's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.3%63.7%+1.7
2+ total bases40.4%40.1%+0.3
Home run12.9%15.9%-3.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+2.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+2.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.6
Home run
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Mickey Gasper against each of Clay Holmes's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker47%92.4+16″ / +2″.363.33211.6%15.9%13Hits these better than most
Sweeper17%80.6-16″ / -4″.366.33517.8%22.4%4Hits these better than most (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Changeup15%87.0+9″ / -1″.293.26226.5%28.6%7Hits these better than most (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Cutter14%84.5-1″ / -3″.354.32322.0%28.7%8Hits these better than most (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Curveball5%80.2-10″ / -14″.335.30421.3%26.7%4Hits these better than most (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating100Elite
Last 100 pitches13trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.463 / .462results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPwith two strikes
Clay Holmes with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup15%24%34.8%18.2%18.6%
Sweeper17%21%12.5%7.9%19.3%
Sinker47%20%13.8%16.2%17.0%
Cutter14%16%41.2%28.6%17.9%
Curveball5%13%33.3%21.7%20.0%
Fastball2%6%0.0%0.0%18.0%
Mickey Gasper bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Mickey Gasper with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.6%41.0%
Whiff%22.2%21.3%
Contact%77.8%78.7%
Chase%38.6%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.8%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.333
K%17.9%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%8.5%
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%24.3%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

93 PA
wOBA.469
xwOBA vs this mix.451against pitches like his
RV/1003.43
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%15.8%
BB%14.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC vs BOS
3.3projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.7 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 57.5%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.2%18%45 strikeouts: 12.2%12%56 strikeouts: 6.8%7%67 strikeouts: 3.2%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.3%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo87.8
BTB Stuff99
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker47%9292.34.0%
Sweeper17%8680.45.0%
Changeup15%9387.014.8%
Cutter14%15384.723.5%
Curveball5%9580.211.1%
Fastball2%5992.86.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 189817%8%17%.300
Sep 1210022%15%26%.358
Sep 6809%5%30%.404

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mickey Gasper: every projection we've made →