MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BOS · batting 5Wilyer Abreu
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.343wOBA vs RHP.355xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CHCClay Holmes
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.3projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Clay Holmes's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 47% usage, 92.4 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +1.8″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .337 vs league .332 (about even).Sinker 47%Sweeper: 17% usage, 80.6 mph, -15.7″ arm side, -3.6″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .341 vs league .335 (about even).Sweeper 17%Changeup: 15% usage, 87.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .268 vs league .262 (about even).Changeup 15%Cutter: 14% usage, 84.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -3.1″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .329 vs league .323 (about even).Cutter 14%Curveball: 5% usage, 80.2 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .310 vs league .304 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Wilyer Abreu's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%59.8%+1.4
2+ total bases39.0%39.0%-0.0
Home run14.1%16.4%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+1.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.7
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Wilyer Abreu against each of Clay Holmes's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker47%92.4+16″ / +2″.337.33221.7%15.9%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper17%80.6-16″ / -4″.341.33523.4%22.4%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup15%87.0+9″ / -1″.268.26228.2%28.6%15About league average vs these
Cutter14%84.5-1″ / -3″.329.32336.7%28.7%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball5%80.2-10″ / -14″.310.30427.7%26.7%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .365running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPwith two strikes
Clay Holmes with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup15%24%34.8%18.2%18.6%
Sweeper17%21%12.5%7.9%19.3%
Sinker47%20%13.8%16.2%17.0%
Cutter14%16%41.2%28.6%17.9%
Curveball5%13%33.3%21.7%20.0%
Fastball2%6%0.0%0.0%18.0%
Wilyer Abreu bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Wilyer Abreu with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.2%41.0%
Whiff%22.7%21.3%
Contact%77.3%78.7%
Chase%38.4%39.6%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.3%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.343
K%22.5%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%7.9%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

221 PA
wOBA.343
xwOBA vs this mix.355against pitches like his
RV/1000.48
Hard-hit%30.9%
K%24.1%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC vs BOS
3.3projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.7 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 57.5%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.2%18%45 strikeouts: 12.2%12%56 strikeouts: 6.8%7%67 strikeouts: 3.2%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.3%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo87.8
BTB Stuff99
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker47%9292.34.0%
Sweeper17%8680.45.0%
Changeup15%9387.014.8%
Cutter14%15384.723.5%
Curveball5%9580.211.1%
Fastball2%5992.86.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 189817%8%17%.300
Sep 1210022%15%26%.358
Sep 6809%5%30%.404

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Wilyer Abreu: every projection we've made →