Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jarren Duran's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 56.8% | 57.3% | -0.4 |
| 2+ total bases | 30.3% | 31.9% | -1.7 |
| Home run | 7.5% | 10.8% | -3.3 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Jarren Duran against each of David Peterson's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31% | 92.3 | +14″ / +8″ | .326 | .324 | 12.6% | 13.5% | 8 | About league average vs these |
| Fastball | 26% | 92.8 | +2″ / +12″ | .345 | .343 | 19.4% | 20.7% | 11 | About league average vs these |
| Slider | 19% | 86.6 | -3″ / +3″ | .315 | .313 | 32.0% | 29.9% | 14 | About league average vs these |
| Changeup | 15% | 85.6 | +13″ / +4″ | .312 | .310 | 30.7% | 28.8% | 2 | Little history vs this shape |
| Curveball | 8% | 80.0 | -4″ / -9″ | .291 | .289 | 28.3% | 26.0% | 6 | Little history vs this shape |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 26% | 30% | 20.3% | 17.7% | 18.6% |
| Slider | 19% | 30% | 25.0% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| Sinker | 31% | 18% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 17.7% |
| Changeup | 15% | 15% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| Curveball | 8% | 7% | 50.0% | 32.0% | 21.2% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | – | 100.0% | 14.3% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| Whiff% | 24.2% | 22.7% |
| Contact% | 75.8% | 77.3% |
| Chase% | 38.3% | 38.2% |
| wOBA | .228 | .224 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 25.0% | 23.5% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
58 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 83 | 32% | 12% | 23% | .205 |
| Sep 14 | 85 | 30% | 14% | 17% | .209 |
| Sep 8 | 83 | 20% | 7% | 15% | .392 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.