Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next up

Sep 25 · 4:35 PM CTvs David Peterson LHPCHC @ BOS1+ hit 56.8%2+ TB 30.3%HR 7.5%Sep 25 · 12:05 PM CTvs Clay Holmes RHPCHC @ BOS1+ hit 56.4%2+ TB 30.0%HR 8.1%

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand

Jarren Duran · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs LHPvs RHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	2	4	.250	.250	.250	.225	.263	25.0%	0.0%	12.5%	56.0	77.4	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Last 15 G	4	8	.250	.250	.375	.269	.324	25.0%	0.0%	29.4%	72.0	102.0	16.7%	16.7%	33.3%
Last 30 G	9	13	.385	.385	.692	.458	.417	15.4%	0.0%	25.0%	78.5	105.0	18.2%	27.3%	27.3%
90 days	32	58	.255	.316	.353	.342	.362	19.0%	6.9%	24.3%	80.2	107.4	7.5%	27.5%	30.0%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play

Ground 55%Line drive 13%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 5%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	11	.500	.600	.750	.590	.593	0.0%	18.2%	30.0%	89.0	108.2	0.0%	44.4%	66.7%
Last 15 G	14	38	.250	.351	.406	.343	.359	23.7%	10.5%	34.8%	84.9	111.7	4.2%	41.7%	45.8%
Last 30 G	29	86	.205	.271	.385	.289	.333	23.3%	5.8%	29.3%	90.1	111.7	6.8%	44.1%	39.0%
90 days	71	218	.203	.259	.360	.282	.312	26.1%	6.4%	28.4%	90.2	111.7	7.6%	45.8%	33.3%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play

Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 12%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	15	.417	.500	.583	.486	.499	6.7%	13.3%	25.0%	80.7	108.2	0.0%	33.3%	58.3%
Last 15 G	15	46	.250	.333	.400	.330	.353	23.9%	8.7%	33.7%	82.3	111.7	6.7%	36.7%	43.3%
Last 30 G	30	99	.231	.286	.429	.311	.344	22.2%	5.1%	28.7%	88.3	111.7	8.6%	41.4%	37.1%
90 days	74	276	.214	.271	.359	.294	.322	24.6%	6.5%	27.6%	88.0	111.7	7.6%	41.8%	32.6%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 184 balls in play

Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	LHP	Fastball	92.2	30.9	57	.150	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Fastball	93.8	59.8	57	.008	Out
Sep 24	RHP	Slider	88.1	108.2	13	.842	Single
Sep 23	LHP	Cutter	87.1	77.4	21	.895	Single
Sep 23	RHP	Sweeper	81.6	94.9	15	.838	Single
Sep 20	RHP	Sinker	95.9	87.3	59	.034	Out
Sep 20	RHP	Fastball	101.1	80.7	12	.479	Out
Sep 20	RHP	Sinker	91.2	95.8	-20	.158	Out
Sep 19	RHP	Changeup	89.7	77.5	24	.742	Single
Sep 19	RHP	Fastball	95.8	49.1	-74	–	Sac bunt
Sep 19	RHP	Fastball	95.5	107.9	14	.750	Triple
Sep 19	RHP	Sinker	90.3	99.2	23	.487	Out

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

012

013

015

016

017

419

020

022

223

124

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	BB	K
Sep 24	3	1	1	0	0
Sep 23	3	2	2	0	1
Sep 22	1	0	0	1	0
Sep 20	4	0	0	1	0
Sep 19	4	2	4	0	0
Sep 17	2	0	0	0	1
Sep 16	1	0	0	0	0
Sep 15	3	0	0	0	2
Sep 13	1	0	0	0	0
Sep 12	4	0	0	0	1

FormCold

Contact rating66Above average

Last 100 pitches41trending down

wOBA / xwOBA.288 / .331running 43 points behind his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit5/12

2+ total bases3/12

Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent

Talent gradeAvgBalanced type

wOBA.312

Barrel%5.2%

Hard-hit%28.1%

K%24.5%

BB%6.9%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jarren Duran · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

xwOBA58.322

Avg EV5088.0

Max EV77111.7

Barrel%607.6%

Hard-hit%6541.8%

Sweet-spot%3132.6%

K%3624.6%

BB%276.5%

Whiff%1927.6%

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Jarren Duran · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled

Hits in 2 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

3 settled games

Games with a hit2 of 3BTB expected 1.5

Games with 2+ TB1 of 3BTB expected 0.8

Games with a HR0 of 3BTB expected 0.3

Talent gradeNeuwOBA .312 · K% 24.5%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.
Date	Facing	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	H	TB	HR
Sep 25	David Peterson	56.7%	30.1%	7.4%	not settled
Sep 24	Daniel Espino	54.2%	27.1%	8.6%	3	1	1	0
Sep 20	Griffin Jax	46.5%	28.2%	9.4%	4	0	0	0
Sep 19	Freddy Peralta	45.3%	26.3%	9.3%	4	2	4	0