MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 8Ernie Clement
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.271wOBA vs LHP.267xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .354 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .360 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .296 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .307 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ernie Clement's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ernie Clement's last 40 balls in playHit (4)Out (36)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 68.3 mph at -18°Out: 79.5 mph at 41°Out: 100.1 mph at 5°Out: 95.6 mph at 23°Single: 82.5 mph at -2°Out: 91.2 mph at -18°Double: 98.9 mph at 17°Out: 90.6 mph at 34°Out: 84.8 mph at 31°Out: 96.3 mph at 34°Out: 55.6 mph at -58°Out: 77.1 mph at 34°Out: 98.6 mph at 2°Out: 83.7 mph at 0°Out: 88.0 mph at 61°Out: 91.0 mph at -6°Double: 98.9 mph at 13°Out: 79.1 mph at -26°Out: 99.7 mph at 25°Out: 95.5 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at -10°Out: 85.9 mph at 51°Out: 85.9 mph at 42°Out: 91.3 mph at 51°Out: 71.2 mph at -3°Out: 81.0 mph at -15°Out: 76.5 mph at 63°Out: 74.8 mph at -18°Out: 77.0 mph at 40°Single: 36.1 mph at -34°Out: 96.8 mph at 32°Out: 97.8 mph at 36°Out: 98.6 mph at 2°Out: 94.9 mph at 41°Out: 93.6 mph at 23°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 76.1 mph at 50°Out: 90.1 mph at 39°Out: 72.4 mph at 65°Out: 83.5 mph at 37°
30% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot10% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.5%61.5%+1.0
2+ total bases31.4%30.1%+1.3
Home run4.5%3.6%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ernie Clement hits
Ernie Clement · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .043 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.193xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .287 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.294xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .066 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 17 pitches seen.216xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .187 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 14 pitches seen.263xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .414 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 15 pitches seen.396xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .197 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 27 pitches seen.272xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .182 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.250xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .446 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 23 pitches seen.385xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .351 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 11 pitches seen.312xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .140 on 11 PA) · league .302 · 21 pitches seen.225xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .228 on 13 PA) · league .346 · 55 pitches seen.285xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .417 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 50 pitches seen.350xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .268 on 18 PA) · league .257 · 61 pitches seen.264
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 16%29%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 25%14%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 29%11%Whiff 13% of 24 swings · league 48%13%Whiff 13% of 31 swings · league 34%13%
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 63%82%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 71%78%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 93% of 14 pitches · league 67%93%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 70% of 27 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 59%82%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 30%67%Swings at 35% of 55 pitches · league 26%35%Swings at 48% of 50 pitches · league 31%48%Swings at 51% of 61 pitches · league 41%51%
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ernie Clement against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.354.3678.4%12.6%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.360.3737.2%10.8%11About league average vs these
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.296.30922.0%30.1%12About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.307.31918.9%28.4%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ernie Clement · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.400.250.2840.0%0.0%0.0%86.898.90.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1118.125.167.188.208.2570.0%5.6%8.0%87.799.75.9%29.4%29.4%
Last 30 G2042.175.190.225.226.2330.0%2.4%2.7%81.899.72.4%22.0%31.7%
90 days48105.210.238.260.252.2606.7%2.9%14.0%83.8102.72.2%21.5%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.154.154.231.165.2067.7%0.0%5.6%87.2100.10.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 15 G1335.121.143.182.143.1755.7%2.9%8.5%85.6100.10.0%31.2%12.5%
Last 30 G2567.143.179.190.168.19111.9%4.5%11.8%82.8102.70.0%23.2%23.2%
90 days69192.219.255.292.253.2379.4%4.7%12.8%82.2102.70.6%14.6%29.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 17%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.167.167.278.189.2275.6%0.0%4.2%87.1100.10.0%35.3%23.5%
Last 15 G1553.122.151.184.165.2033.8%3.8%8.3%86.3100.12.0%30.6%18.4%
Last 30 G30109.155.183.204.190.2077.3%3.7%8.2%82.4102.71.0%22.7%26.8%
90 days76297.216.249.281.252.2458.4%4.0%13.2%82.7102.71.2%17.1%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 257 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
Ernie Clement · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating14Poor
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.263 / .268results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.268.3-18.041Out
Sep 25LHPFastball92.579.541.041Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.2100.15.551Fielder's choice
Sep 25RHPSlider83.795.623.255Out
Sep 23RHPSlider82.282.5-2.178Single
Sep 23RHPCutter89.591.2-18.114Double play
Sep 23RHPCutter90.798.917.535Double
Sep 23RHPSlider87.490.634.035Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.284.831.047Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.296.334.252Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.255.6-58.205Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.977.134.123Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 23423000
Sep 23300001
Sep 21300000
Sep 20412000
Sep 19300000
Sep 18300001
Sep 16400000
Sep 15400010
Sep 14411000

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Ernie Clement bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ernie Clement with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.6%41.5%
Whiff%18.6%21.6%
Contact%81.4%78.4%
Chase%48.0%39.9%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.8%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.282
K%9.3%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%8.1%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%15.5%
Avg EV83.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

104 PA
wOBA.271
xwOBA vs this mix.267against pitches like his
RV/100-1.75
Hard-hit%19.4%
K%8.5%
BB%4.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ernie Clement: every projection we've made →