Nick Lodolo

CIN · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 6:07 PM CT

Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR

3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.7%

BB%10.4%

Whiff%8.9%

Velo89.6

BTB Stuff91

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball28%10293.65.4%

Sinker27%9693.42.3%

Curveball24%9082.517.9%

Changeup22%7087.711.7%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	90	3%	3%	35%	.309
Sep 14	104	15%	7%	30%	.285
Sep 8	97	26%	11%	17%	.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameCIN @ TOR →Rogers Centre

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	28%	93.7	+16.4″	+8.6″
Sinker	Hard	27%	93.5	+18.6″	+4.4″
Curveball	Breaking	24%	82.5	-4.7″	-0.8″
Changeup	Offspeed	22%	87.7	+16.7″	+1.1″

The lineup he faces

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Charles McAdoo25%

2Alejandro Kirk16%

3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.15%

4George Springer19%

5Kazuma Okamoto26%

6Nathan Lukes18%

7Davis Schneider31%

8Ernie Clement9%

9Myles Straw13%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+4 pts

Curveball+6 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Changeup-7 pts

Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	28%	33%	15.9%	12.5%	18.6%
Curveball	24%	30%	39.5%	23.5%	21.2%
Sinker	27%	23%	8.1%	11.5%	17.7%
Changeup	22%	15%	17.2%	12.2%	18.3%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts1BTB expected 4.0 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	TOR	3.6	4.5	28.7%	41.5%	not settled
Sep 19	CHC	4.0	4.5	37.7%	44.8%	1