MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 8John Rave
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.333wOBA vs RHP.325xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .296 vs league .296 (about even).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .339 vs league .339 (about even).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .294 vs league .294 (about even).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .352 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is John Rave's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

John Rave's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 29.9 mph at -15°Out: 79.0 mph at -9°Out: 94.0 mph at 35°Single: 88.3 mph at 14°Out: 66.7 mph at -28°Double: 103.8 mph at 23°Out: 97.7 mph at -13°Out: 43.2 mph at 37°Out: 100.2 mph at 31°Single: 35.1 mph at -48°Out: 105.3 mph at -3°Single: 96.6 mph at 11°Out: 87.0 mph at 38°Single: 55.5 mph at 48°Double: 105.2 mph at 10°Out: 92.2 mph at -1°Home run: 101.9 mph at 22°Out: 62.9 mph at 47°Out: 73.6 mph at -13°Out: 103.9 mph at -18°Out: 97.8 mph at 37°Out: 94.6 mph at 20°Out: 87.6 mph at 7°Out: 101.0 mph at 12°Single: 64.9 mph at -46°Out: 75.3 mph at -13°Home run: 101.1 mph at 35°Double: 86.3 mph at 27°Out: 94.8 mph at 25°Out: 75.3 mph at -29°Out: 91.8 mph at 22°Out: 9.1 mph at -17°Home run: 98.0 mph at 34°Out: 103.9 mph at -7°Single: 100.1 mph at 3°Out: 100.1 mph at -8°Out: 83.2 mph at 43°Out: 69.3 mph at -6°Single: 97.9 mph at 9°Out: 74.0 mph at 72°
40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.8%55.5%-4.7
2+ total bases25.1%28.4%-3.3
Home run8.2%9.3%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.0
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where John Rave hits
John Rave · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .027 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.225xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .054 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 14 pitches seen.244xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seen.243xwOBA .463 shrunk (raw .827 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.463xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .266 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.329xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .469 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 16 pitches seen.370xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .257 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.286xwOBA .445 shrunk (raw .548 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 24 pitches seen.445xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .477 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 23 pitches seen.366xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .426 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 64 pitches seen.399xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .277 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.275xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .225 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 67 pitches seen.244xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .285 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 81 pitches seen.281
vs RHP · 397 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 22%29%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 38% of 32 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 397 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 62%47%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 70%47%Swings at 85% of 27 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 46% of 28 pitches · league 65%46%Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 60%65%Swings at 11% of 64 pitches · league 24%11%Swings at 35% of 20 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 22% of 67 pitches · league 40%22%Swings at 40% of 81 pitches · league 32%40%
vs RHP · 397 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

John Rave against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.296.29630.3%33.8%8About league average vs these
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.339.33918.9%19.9%19About league average vs these
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.294.29429.1%32.6%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.352.35215.6%16.5%20About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
John Rave · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.312.353.375.326.36223.5%5.9%21.4%78.3105.316.7%41.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1340.294.400.559.411.37220.0%15.0%18.8%83.3105.37.7%38.5%34.6%
Last 30 G2879.232.329.406.342.33519.0%12.7%19.4%86.8105.35.7%39.6%32.1%
90 days38103.242.330.429.346.34318.4%11.7%18.9%86.2105.37.0%38.0%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.000.000.000.000.00566.7%0.0%50.0%87.087.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G911.100.182.100.145.12654.5%9.1%36.4%83.797.80.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1826.217.280.391.338.24438.5%7.7%25.0%72.6106.57.1%28.6%28.6%
90 days2336.188.235.312.289.20833.3%5.6%22.6%71.3106.54.8%19.0%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 10%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.263.300.316.277.30830.0%5.0%26.5%79.0105.315.4%38.5%30.8%
Last 15 G1551.250.353.455.354.31927.5%13.7%23.1%83.4105.36.7%36.7%33.3%
Last 30 G30105.228.317.402.341.31323.8%11.4%20.9%83.8106.56.0%37.3%31.3%
90 days41139.228.307.398.332.31022.3%10.1%19.9%82.8106.56.5%33.7%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 92 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
John Rave · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches33trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.429.9-15.350Single
Sep 25RHPSinker91.379.0-9.076Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.094.035.080Double play
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.188.314.903Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup79.766.7-28.052Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.2103.8231.245Double
Sep 23RHPSinker95.197.7-13.192Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball98.343.237.141Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper82.6100.231.864Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.135.1-48.282Single
Sep 20RHPCutter92.8105.3-3.430Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.096.611.838Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24423001
Sep 23400001
Sep 20411002
Sep 19411002
Sep 18311011
Sep 17312001
Sep 16414101
Sep 15300011
Sep 13100010

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
John Rave bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
John Rave with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.5%41.0%
Whiff%23.5%21.3%
Contact%76.5%78.7%
Chase%43.5%39.6%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes30.7%28.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%24.2%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV84.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

101 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.325against pitches like his
RV/100-0.24
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%20.5%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.John Rave: every projection we've made →