MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 5Andrew Benintendi
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedCold
.322wOBA vs RHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%2.4trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .283 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .361 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .356 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .344 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .321 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .311 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Andrew Benintendi: wOBA .322 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrew Benintendi's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrew Benintendi's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.5 mph at 10°Out: 96.1 mph at 22°Out: 88.0 mph at -18°Out: 87.4 mph at 40°Single: 100.7 mph at 13°Out: 101.7 mph at 6°Out: 65.9 mph at 39°Single: 92.8 mph at -8°Single: 101.1 mph at 12°Out: 78.3 mph at 31°Single: 99.3 mph at -3°Out: 100.0 mph at 23°Out: 76.8 mph at -21°Single: 101.2 mph at 6°Out: 86.3 mph at 34°Out: 91.2 mph at 57°Out: 84.2 mph at 41°Out: 89.7 mph at 44°Out: 75.8 mph at 41°Double: 97.5 mph at 20°Double: 104.5 mph at 14°Out: 99.7 mph at -5°Out: 100.9 mph at 24°Double: 104.9 mph at 11°Out: 95.6 mph at 28°Out: 93.8 mph at 43°Out: 97.0 mph at 10°Out: 99.3 mph at 31°Out: 96.9 mph at 48°Out: 68.7 mph at -15°Out: 65.1 mph at -6°Out: 98.9 mph at 2°Out: 96.9 mph at 7°Out: 89.7 mph at 30°Single: 97.7 mph at 8°Out: 69.5 mph at 66°Out: 90.9 mph at 53°Out: 85.9 mph at -33°Out: 100.0 mph at 27°Out: 102.6 mph at 18°
53% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.6%59.8%+4.8
2+ total bases39.8%34.9%+4.9
Home run13.9%10.6%+3.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.3
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+4.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Andrew Benintendi hits
Andrew Benintendi · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .373 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 40 pitches seen.324xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .313 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 33 pitches seen.310xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .058 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.234xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .266 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 48 pitches seen.301xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .342 on 11 PA) · league .386 · 38 pitches seen.365xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .212 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 28 pitches seen.257xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .237 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 37 pitches seen.276xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .321 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 52 pitches seen.332xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .231 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 19 pitches seen.274xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .341 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 146 pitches seen.355xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .163 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.233xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .235 on 42 PA) · league .263 · 152 pitches seen.241xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .405 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 130 pitches seen.365
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 26% of 19 swings · league 22%26%Whiff 23% of 26 swings · league 20%23%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 22% of 32 swings · league 9%22%Whiff 0% of 23 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 27 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 19% of 43 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 17%23%Whiff 33% of 27 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 34% of 73 swings · league 32%34%Whiff 31% of 55 swings · league 49%31%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 48% of 40 pitches · league 62%48%Swings at 79% of 33 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 67% of 48 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 84% of 38 pitches · league 76%84%Swings at 82% of 28 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 73% of 37 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 83% of 52 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 60%68%Swings at 19% of 146 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 48% of 29 pitches · league 34%48%Swings at 48% of 152 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 42% of 130 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 762 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Andrew Benintendi against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.283.28630.0%27.3%34About league average vs these
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.361.36518.5%15.2%50About league average vs these
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.356.36017.0%13.8%57About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.344.34727.7%23.3%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.321.32425.0%24.6%26About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.311.31427.5%26.9%18About league average vs these
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.322.32528.6%28.2%27About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrew Benintendi · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.091.214.091.164.25642.9%14.3%31.0%92.2101.70.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1539.229.282.314.265.29028.2%7.7%30.1%92.0104.94.0%52.0%44.0%
Last 30 G3091.220.275.329.277.29223.1%7.7%22.7%90.9109.96.3%49.2%42.9%
90 days67202.235.307.374.317.29421.8%9.4%25.4%89.0109.95.9%42.6%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 136 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 25%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%66.7%–––––
Last 15 G22.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%42.9%–––––
Last 30 G44.000.000.000.000.01075.0%0.0%40.0%79.479.40.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days1213.308.308.308.277.18230.8%0.0%29.0%82.698.00.0%11.1%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 9 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.083.200.083.153.23946.7%13.3%34.4%92.2101.70.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1541.216.268.297.252.27631.7%7.3%31.1%92.0104.94.0%52.0%44.0%
Last 30 G3095.209.263.314.265.28025.3%7.4%24.0%90.8109.96.2%48.4%42.2%
90 days67215.240.307.370.315.28722.3%8.8%25.7%88.6109.95.5%40.7%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 13%
Andrew Benintendi · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating50Average
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .315results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.679.510.341Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.596.122.247Sac fly
Sep 23RHPSinker91.688.0-18.081Fielder's choice
Sep 23RHPCurveball75.487.440.005Out
Sep 22RHPCutter88.8100.713.915Single
Sep 20RHPFastball96.5101.76.593Out
Sep 17RHPSlider86.565.939.473Out
Sep 14RHPFastball96.792.8-8.174Single
Sep 14RHPCurveball81.5101.112.927Single
Sep 14RHPCurveball84.478.331.125Out
Sep 14RHPChangeup82.799.3-3.312Single
Sep 14RHPSinker96.3100.023.683Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24500022
Sep 23200000
Sep 22211001
Sep 20200001
Sep 19300003
Sep 17100000
Sep 14533000
Sep 13411001
Sep 12100000

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Andrew Benintendi bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrew Benintendi with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.2%41.0%
Whiff%22.8%21.3%
Contact%77.2%78.7%
Chase%45.8%39.6%
wOBA.261.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.3%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.325
K%20.7%
BB%8.7%
Whiff%12.7%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

201 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.10
Hard-hit%29.3%
K%20.7%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrew Benintendi: every projection we've made →