MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 8Colson Montgomery
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.261wOBA vs RHP.254xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .261 vs league .286 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .338 vs league .365 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .333 vs league .360 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .321 vs league .347 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .298 vs league .324 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .288 vs league .314 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Colson Montgomery: wOBA .299 vs league .325 (pitcher's edge).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Colson Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Colson Montgomery's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 82.2 mph at 30°Out: 90.8 mph at -5°Out: 87.9 mph at 53°Out: 97.5 mph at 41°Out: 91.8 mph at 48°Out: 55.0 mph at -21°Out: 78.8 mph at -2°Out: 79.0 mph at 32°Out: 73.9 mph at 43°Out: 85.0 mph at 36°Single: 105.7 mph at 11°Double: 103.0 mph at 10°Single: 65.5 mph at 37°Out: 85.9 mph at 26°Out: 98.2 mph at -7°Out: 94.6 mph at 45°Out: 103.0 mph at 8°Out: 58.9 mph at 8°Out: 94.4 mph at 58°Double: 110.7 mph at 19°Out: 74.6 mph at 66°Out: 84.9 mph at 67°Out: 94.7 mph at 57°Out: 106.3 mph at -3°Out: 39.6 mph at 33°Home run: 112.3 mph at 24°Out: 96.8 mph at 26°Home run: 108.6 mph at 35°Out: 74.4 mph at 79°Out: 78.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.5 mph at -4°Out: 62.8 mph at -15°Out: 61.6 mph at 21°Out: 70.2 mph at 57°Single: 102.4 mph at 14°Double: 86.3 mph at 16°Double: 95.6 mph at 17°Home run: 115.4 mph at 19°Out: 73.9 mph at 10°Out: 89.0 mph at 30°
33% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.4%48.2%+6.2
2+ total bases36.4%30.5%+5.9
Home run18.0%13.3%+4.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+5.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+5.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+4.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Colson Montgomery hits
Colson Montgomery · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .218 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 51 pitches seen.242xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .386 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 44 pitches seen.348xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .161 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 26 pitches seen.217xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .354 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.350xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .304 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 50 pitches seen.332xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .157 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 50 pitches seen.233xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .311 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 32 pitches seen.309xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .442 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 33 pitches seen.387xwOBA .202 shrunk (raw .093 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.202xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .214 on 23 PA) · league .377 · 175 pitches seen.270xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .314 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 48 pitches seen.286xwOBA .131 shrunk (raw .073 on 27 PA) · league .263 · 105 pitches seen.131xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .262 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 168 pitches seen.266
vs RHP · 866 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 35% of 43 swings · league 22%35%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 20%12%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 0% of 29 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 12% of 43 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 0% of 26 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 14%35%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 13%25%Whiff 42% of 24 swings · league 17%42%Whiff 55% of 53 swings · league 28%55%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 24%21%Whiff 64% of 50 swings · league 32%64%Whiff 84% of 51 swings · league 49%84%
vs RHP · 866 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 84% of 51 pitches · league 62%84%Swings at 77% of 44 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 65% of 26 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 69% of 42 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 86% of 50 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 52% of 50 pitches · league 70%52%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 73% of 33 pitches · league 68%73%Swings at 57% of 42 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 30% of 175 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 29% of 48 pitches · league 34%29%Swings at 48% of 105 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 30% of 168 pitches · league 32%30%
vs RHP · 866 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Colson Montgomery against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.261.28641.7%27.3%24About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.338.36523.5%15.2%69About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.333.36022.5%13.8%60About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.321.34733.8%23.3%34About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.298.32443.3%24.6%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.288.31446.3%26.9%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.299.32547.6%28.2%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Colson Montgomery · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.077.200.077.153.19340.0%13.3%19.2%88.3105.70.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1437.065.216.097.172.21445.9%13.5%34.6%87.9110.77.1%28.6%50.0%
Last 30 G2993.112.237.262.242.24547.3%11.8%33.7%86.1112.311.1%33.3%44.4%
90 days69211.142.218.300.244.24145.0%7.6%36.4%88.9113.610.4%36.5%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 21%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 30%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.000.000.000.000.06233.3%0.0%10.0%77.490.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1220.118.250.176.258.20845.0%5.0%45.5%83.8103.00.0%25.0%12.5%
Last 30 G2029.154.241.308.278.25337.9%3.4%36.4%87.2115.46.7%40.0%26.7%
90 days5197.241.320.391.325.30327.8%8.2%26.6%84.6115.48.3%35.0%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 22%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.15638.1%9.5%16.7%84.3105.70.0%18.2%27.3%
Last 15 G1557.083.228.125.202.21245.6%10.5%37.8%86.4110.74.5%27.3%36.4%
Last 30 G30122.123.238.274.250.24745.1%9.8%34.3%86.4115.49.8%35.3%39.2%
90 days73308.173.250.329.270.26139.6%7.8%33.5%87.3115.49.6%35.9%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 27%
Colson Montgomery · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating16Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.272 / .276results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball78.682.230.120Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball78.590.8-5.156Out
Sep 24RHPFastball90.487.953.008Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.397.541.166Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup91.191.848.000Out
Sep 23LHPSinker91.055.0-21.077Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.178.8-2.128Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.679.032.044Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.773.943.226Out
Sep 20LHPSweeper79.585.036.011Out
Sep 20RHPSlider82.4105.711.939Single
Sep 18LHPFastball93.6103.010.812Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400003
Sep 22500003
Sep 20511020
Sep 19300003
Sep 18423002
Sep 16200001
Sep 15200001
Sep 14500003

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Colson Montgomery bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Colson Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%59.8%41.0%
Whiff%34.1%21.3%
Contact%65.9%78.7%
Chase%41.5%39.6%
wOBA.208.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes33.2%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%37.7%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%15.9%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%19.4%
Avg EV87.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

212 PA
wOBA.261
xwOBA vs this mix.254against pitches like his
RV/100-1.02
Hard-hit%17.6%
K%42.1%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Colson Montgomery: every projection we've made →