MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 9Ezequiel Tovar
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .325 vs league .330 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .283 vs league .288 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .287 vs league .292 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .295 vs league .300 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .346 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Tovar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Tovar's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 77.9 mph at 31°Out: 49.2 mph at -48°Out: 73.3 mph at 53°Out: 97.7 mph at 64°Out: 47.8 mph at -77°Single: 66.5 mph at 24°Out: 67.1 mph at 71°Home run: 101.5 mph at 25°Out: 72.5 mph at -18°Single: 106.6 mph at -2°Double: 103.9 mph at 21°Out: 88.9 mph at 59°Out: 72.2 mph at 60°Single: 102.4 mph at 12°Out: 90.2 mph at 1°Out: 89.8 mph at 26°Out: 91.9 mph at -3°Single: 106.7 mph at 0°Out: 67.4 mph at 13°Home run: 107.3 mph at 23°Out: 24.9 mph at 20°Out: 28.8 mph at -56°Out: 94.0 mph at 26°Single: 73.8 mph at 37°Single: 85.5 mph at 18°Out: 65.8 mph at 13°Out: 71.2 mph at -12°Out: 90.3 mph at 34°Single: 92.2 mph at 12°Out: 92.4 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 11°Single: 88.7 mph at -5°Single: 77.4 mph at 15°Out: 95.9 mph at 48°Out: 90.4 mph at 40°Out: 98.9 mph at 33°Out: 73.9 mph at -18°Single: 85.7 mph at -3°Out: 96.3 mph at 58°Out: 94.1 mph at 5°
25% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.8%55.5%-2.7
2+ total bases26.9%29.0%-2.1
Home run8.5%9.1%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ezequiel Tovar hits
Ezequiel Tovar · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .191 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.262xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .276 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 19 pitches seen.298xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .217 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 9 pitches seen.259xwOBA .401 shrunk (raw .490 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 21 pitches seen.401xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .155 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 29 pitches seen.301xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .096 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 25 pitches seen.225xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .397 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.334xwOBA .441 shrunk (raw .525 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 33 pitches seen.441xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .256 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 29 pitches seen.277xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .250 on 9 PA) · league .377 · 63 pitches seen.323xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .087 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.205xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .332 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.291xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .256 on 36 PA) · league .274 · 129 pitches seen.261
vs RHP · 452 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 20%39%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 13% of 24 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 13%4%Whiff 7% of 27 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 28%35%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 24%21%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 32%12%Whiff 45% of 64 swings · league 49%45%
vs RHP · 452 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 95% of 19 pitches · league 72%95%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 91% of 21 pitches · league 70%91%Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 84% of 25 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 100% of 9 pitches · league 65%100%Swings at 85% of 33 pitches · league 68%85%Swings at 93% of 29 pitches · league 60%93%Swings at 32% of 63 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 32% of 44 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 57% of 30 pitches · league 40%57%Swings at 50% of 129 pitches · league 32%50%
vs RHP · 452 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Tovar against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.325.33022.7%22.9%20About league average vs these
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.283.28827.0%30.2%4Little history vs this shape
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.287.29228.1%31.4%28About league average vs these
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.295.30027.5%28.2%22About league average vs these
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.346.35115.7%15.6%28About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Tovar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.300.239.12250.0%0.0%29.0%64.877.90.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1325.375.375.583.439.30332.0%0.0%28.8%78.8107.312.5%18.8%56.2%
Last 30 G2346.395.400.605.452.36228.3%2.2%26.5%84.5107.310.0%30.0%50.0%
90 days55122.252.281.378.299.28319.7%4.9%22.5%83.4107.34.4%30.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.667.333.22516.7%0.0%16.7%78.8101.520.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1224.182.250.318.254.25825.0%8.3%32.0%82.5106.76.2%25.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2345.098.178.171.167.22028.9%8.9%29.0%84.1109.47.1%28.6%28.6%
90 days4787.179.244.333.256.26126.4%8.0%28.4%84.5109.48.8%31.6%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 19%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.438.277.16337.5%0.0%25.6%72.6101.511.1%22.2%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.283.312.457.345.28028.6%4.1%30.3%80.6107.39.4%21.9%46.9%
Last 30 G3091.250.289.393.306.29028.6%5.5%27.7%84.3109.48.6%29.3%39.7%
90 days65209.222.266.360.281.27422.5%6.2%25.0%83.8109.46.1%30.6%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
Ezequiel Tovar · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches52trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.281 / .290results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.177.931.125Double
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.649.2-48.211Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup86.773.353.102Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.897.764.013Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.147.8-77.154Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.666.524.819Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball90.967.171.000Out
Sep 23LHPSinker97.9101.525.972Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup83.572.5-18.054Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1106.6-2.426Single
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1103.921.954Double
Sep 18LHPChangeup87.788.959.031Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25312002
Sep 24500002
Sep 23425100
Sep 20200001
Sep 19200001
Sep 18423001
Sep 16411001
Sep 14411010
Sep 12414101
Sep 11200001

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Ezequiel Tovar bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Tovar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.0%42.4%
Whiff%20.4%22.2%
Contact%79.6%77.8%
Chase%42.7%39.9%
wOBA.240.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%22.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.297
K%22.1%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%14.2%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%22.8%
Avg EV84.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

120 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.92
Hard-hit%22.8%
K%19.2%
BB%6.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Tovar: every projection we've made →