MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 4Munetaka Murakami
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.322wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .283 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .360 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .356 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .343 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .321 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .310 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .322 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Munetaka Murakami's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Munetaka Murakami's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 109.4 mph at 30°Home run: 103.3 mph at 37°Single: 113.0 mph at 18°Out: 82.7 mph at -3°Single: 102.3 mph at 23°Double: 107.1 mph at 20°Out: 106.8 mph at 45°Out: 100.5 mph at 35°Out: 96.2 mph at 0°Home run: 109.1 mph at 24°Out: 91.6 mph at -15°Out: 83.7 mph at -26°Single: 73.7 mph at 31°Out: 66.3 mph at -34°Out: 94.7 mph at 7°Home run: 109.1 mph at 35°Triple: 88.5 mph at 9°Out: 72.7 mph at -8°Out: 90.7 mph at -28°Single: 104.6 mph at 13°Out: 80.8 mph at -8°Out: 66.1 mph at -59°Out: 84.6 mph at 25°Out: 97.3 mph at 39°Out: 93.6 mph at 9°Home run: 110.0 mph at 43°Single: 98.5 mph at 5°Out: 98.4 mph at 52°Out: 89.2 mph at -34°Home run: 103.6 mph at 49°Out: 97.5 mph at 58°Out: 107.6 mph at 47°Out: 75.2 mph at -3°Out: 86.9 mph at -17°Out: 82.5 mph at 53°Out: 59.7 mph at 5°Single: 107.2 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at 47°Out: 107.5 mph at 52°Out: 92.6 mph at 54°
53% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.8%52.1%+7.7
2+ total bases40.6%33.2%+7.4
Home run20.8%14.7%+6.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+7.9
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+7.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+6.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Munetaka Murakami hits
Munetaka Murakami · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .138 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.209xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .187 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 37 pitches seen.272xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .267 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 27 pitches seen.265xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .374 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 56 pitches seen.361xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .361 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.370xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .229 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.279xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .421 on 19 PA) · league .308 · 46 pitches seen.377xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .332 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 56 pitches seen.340xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .693 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.392xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .323 on 21 PA) · league .377 · 161 pitches seen.343xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .150 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 50 pitches seen.228xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .270 on 37 PA) · league .263 · 149 pitches seen.268xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .236 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 149 pitches seen.248
vs RHP · 895 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 18 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 50% of 18 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 19%27%Whiff 31% of 36 swings · league 10%31%Whiff 25% of 40 swings · league 9%25%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 14%29%Whiff 31% of 32 swings · league 13%31%Whiff 41% of 17 swings · league 17%41%Whiff 62% of 26 swings · league 28%62%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 48% of 50 swings · league 32%48%Whiff 78% of 40 swings · league 49%78%
vs RHP · 895 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 32 pitches · league 62%56%Swings at 49% of 37 pitches · league 72%49%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 64% of 56 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 74% of 54 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 63% of 35 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 61% of 46 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 57% of 56 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 40% of 43 pitches · league 60%40%Swings at 16% of 161 pitches · league 24%16%Swings at 22% of 50 pitches · league 34%22%Swings at 34% of 149 pitches · league 40%34%Swings at 27% of 149 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 895 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Munetaka Murakami against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.283.28645.0%27.3%21About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.360.36531.8%15.2%53About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.356.36029.0%13.8%48About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.343.34742.9%23.3%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.321.32438.8%24.6%27About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.310.31441.9%26.9%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.322.32543.1%28.2%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Munetaka Murakami · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.400.4711.067.615.59935.3%5.9%38.5%102.8113.055.6%77.8%55.6%
Last 15 G1443.211.302.526.350.32746.5%7.0%46.1%92.1113.027.8%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G2996.167.271.393.291.25445.8%10.4%41.2%93.3113.020.0%47.5%30.0%
90 days65207.194.319.463.341.30940.1%14.0%41.1%93.4113.019.8%51.6%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 17%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.667.000.467.6490.0%50.0%0.0%98.3100.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G919.182.526.455.447.55421.1%36.8%32.1%95.9109.114.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 30 G1833.150.485.300.391.45730.3%33.3%35.7%94.6109.110.0%50.0%30.0%
90 days4791.157.352.314.314.38633.0%20.9%39.1%94.1113.417.5%62.5%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.353.522.941.576.61226.1%17.4%29.4%102.0113.045.5%81.8%45.5%
Last 15 G1562.204.371.510.380.39638.7%16.1%42.3%93.1113.024.0%48.0%40.0%
Last 30 G30129.163.326.375.316.30641.9%16.3%39.9%93.5113.018.0%48.0%30.0%
90 days68298.184.329.420.333.33337.9%16.1%40.5%93.6113.419.1%55.0%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
Munetaka Murakami · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating73Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .338running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker92.9109.4302.018Home run
Sep 25RHPSlider86.0103.337.824Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball95.3113.0181.305Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.982.7-3.130Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.9102.323.859Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper80.8107.1201.074Double
Sep 23RHPSinker89.6106.845.453Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.7100.535.688Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.896.20.383Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball81.6109.1241.946Home run
Sep 20RHPCutter88.891.6-15.148Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball86.683.7-26.052Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25439201
Sep 24511012
Sep 23412001
Sep 22514111
Sep 20500021
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500012
Sep 17427102
Sep 16200010
Sep 15500014

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Munetaka Murakami bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Munetaka Murakami with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%53.8%41.0%
Whiff%33.0%21.3%
Contact%67.0%78.7%
Chase%32.6%39.6%
wOBA.228.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.2%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.318
K%35.9%
BB%15.0%
Whiff%15.0%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%23.8%
Avg EV92.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

203 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%22.3%
K%38.4%
BB%15.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Munetaka Murakami: every projection we've made →