MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 6Tristan Peters
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedCold
.332wOBA vs RHP.318xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .289 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .367 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .362 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .349 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .327 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .316 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .328 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tristan Peters's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tristan Peters's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.4 mph at 65°Out: 77.3 mph at 37°Out: 94.6 mph at 27°Out: 97.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.1 mph at 7°Out: 97.5 mph at -12°Single: 103.6 mph at 1°Out: 80.4 mph at 22°Out: 74.9 mph at -27°Out: 100.4 mph at 17°Out: 55.6 mph at 55°Out: 26.1 mph at -79°Out: 60.9 mph at 58°Out: 76.8 mph at -3°Out: 82.1 mph at 69°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 92.9 mph at -9°Out: 101.5 mph at -7°Double: 100.8 mph at 12°Out: 86.7 mph at -26°Out: 65.3 mph at 4°Single: 99.5 mph at 18°Out: 79.4 mph at 44°Out: 81.4 mph at -18°Out: 71.2 mph at 52°Single: 102.5 mph at 2°Out: 83.0 mph at -36°Out: 93.7 mph at 57°Out: 74.5 mph at 62°Out: 61.3 mph at -11°Out: 91.2 mph at -3°Double: 105.9 mph at 20°Out: 103.3 mph at 4°Double: 72.6 mph at 31°Single: 98.5 mph at 4°Out: 101.1 mph at 21°Double: 97.0 mph at 21°Out: 95.4 mph at 73°Single: 69.4 mph at 35°Out: 100.0 mph at 40°
43% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.5%57.2%+4.3
2+ total bases38.6%34.2%+4.3
Home run13.0%10.0%+3.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.7
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Tristan Peters hits
Tristan Peters · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .303 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.291xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .340 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 29 pitches seen.318xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .200 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.242xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .397 on 27 PA) · league .342 · 48 pitches seen.380xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .283 on 22 PA) · league .386 · 48 pitches seen.319xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .171 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.243xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .386 on 17 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.354xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .454 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 51 pitches seen.411xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .351 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.323xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .332 on 28 PA) · league .377 · 125 pitches seen.346xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .551 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.366xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .204 on 29 PA) · league .263 · 96 pitches seen.221xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .249 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 134 pitches seen.260
vs RHP · 749 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 22%30%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 19%6%Whiff 13% of 39 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 8% of 39 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 16% of 37 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 22% of 36 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 28% of 47 swings · league 32%28%Whiff 66% of 38 swings · league 49%66%
vs RHP · 749 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 74% of 31 pitches · league 62%74%Swings at 76% of 29 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 73% of 22 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 81% of 48 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 81% of 48 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 81% of 32 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 73% of 51 pitches · league 68%73%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 60%65%Swings at 29% of 125 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 36% of 45 pitches · league 34%36%Swings at 49% of 96 pitches · league 40%49%Swings at 28% of 134 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 749 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Tristan Peters against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.289.28628.8%27.3%29About league average vs these
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.367.36514.4%15.2%57About league average vs these
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.362.36012.8%13.8%61About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.349.34721.8%23.3%35About league average vs these
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.327.32423.7%24.6%24About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.316.31425.5%26.9%22About league average vs these
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.328.32527.4%28.2%28About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tristan Peters · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.083.154.083.123.20723.1%0.0%15.0%88.1103.60.0%44.4%11.1%
Last 15 G1544.128.227.179.198.24322.7%4.5%15.9%87.7105.93.4%37.9%13.8%
Last 30 G2987.247.333.481.352.32718.4%6.9%17.6%88.8106.48.2%47.5%24.6%
90 days73216.250.315.439.327.31818.1%6.0%21.5%87.8106.46.3%39.2%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 22%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.000.333.000.233.6520.0%33.3%0.0%90.4100.40.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G812.250.500.375.413.43416.7%16.7%10.0%73.2100.40.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G1423.278.435.556.426.40421.7%13.0%22.2%82.8103.37.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days2841.250.415.406.373.37819.5%17.1%18.6%77.7103.34.2%37.5%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 25%Line drive 29%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.188.071.144.29118.8%6.2%13.0%88.5103.60.0%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1556.149.286.213.244.28421.4%7.1%14.8%85.2105.92.9%37.1%20.0%
Last 30 G30110.253.355.495.367.34319.1%8.2%18.5%87.7106.48.1%47.3%28.4%
90 days74257.250.331.434.335.32718.3%7.8%21.1%86.5106.46.0%39.0%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 182 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
Tristan Peters · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches54trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .331results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker93.391.465.005Out
Sep 25RHPCutter90.377.337.099Out
Sep 25RHPCutter88.894.627.280Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.397.135.317Out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.5101.17.589Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.197.5-12.169Force out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.3103.61.456Single
Sep 24LHPSlider87.480.422.717Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.174.9-27.044Out
Sep 23LHPFastball96.2100.417.542Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.455.655.008Out
Sep 16LHPSlider87.126.1-79.185Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24511001
Sep 23400000
Sep 22100001
Sep 18200011
Sep 16400001
Sep 15400012
Sep 14500011
Sep 13412000
Sep 12511001

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Tristan Peters bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tristan Peters with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.6%41.0%
Whiff%22.1%21.3%
Contact%77.9%78.7%
Chase%40.3%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.6%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%20.5%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%27.3%
Avg EV86.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

215 PA
wOBA.332
xwOBA vs this mix.318against pitches like his
RV/1000.23
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%19.5%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tristan Peters: every projection we've made →