MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · COL · batting 7Troy Johnston
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedCold
.306wOBA vs RHP.333xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CWSSean Burke
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Down
5.7projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Burke's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.1 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Troy Johnston: wOBA .333 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 37%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.5 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Troy Johnston: wOBA .305 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 19%Slider: 16% usage, 86.1 mph, -5.6″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Troy Johnston: wOBA .327 vs league .332 (about even).Slider 16%Cutter: 15% usage, 89.5 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +8.3″ rise. Troy Johnston: wOBA .348 vs league .353 (about even).Cutter 15%Sinker: 12% usage, 95.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Troy Johnston: wOBA .346 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Troy Johnston's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Troy Johnston's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.4 mph at 60°Out: 90.4 mph at 42°Out: 77.4 mph at 62°Double: 87.1 mph at 16°Single: 72.7 mph at 10°Out: 89.1 mph at -9°Out: 93.0 mph at -13°Out: 92.9 mph at 8°Out: 84.0 mph at 64°Out: 91.1 mph at -28°Single: 95.9 mph at 15°Double: 94.6 mph at 16°Double: 106.0 mph at 12°Out: 93.5 mph at 52°Out: 95.6 mph at 51°Single: 75.3 mph at 22°Out: 91.0 mph at 39°Out: 81.0 mph at 3°Out: 100.4 mph at 21°Single: 106.9 mph at 11°Out: 84.5 mph at 3°Out: 77.5 mph at -2°Out: 88.4 mph at -9°Out: 96.7 mph at -11°Out: 98.6 mph at 0°Double: 92.2 mph at 20°Out: 102.5 mph at -6°Double: 80.8 mph at 40°Single: 100.3 mph at 7°Single: 79.8 mph at 15°Out: 82.3 mph at 38°Out: 90.0 mph at -16°Single: 94.2 mph at 5°Single: 96.6 mph at 2°Home run: 101.2 mph at 31°Out: 85.9 mph at 43°Out: 97.9 mph at 34°Out: 42.6 mph at -71°Out: 89.9 mph at 27°Double: 101.2 mph at 4°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.1%59.7%-1.6
2+ total bases30.5%31.6%-1.1
Home run7.8%7.5%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Troy Johnston hits
Troy Johnston · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .376 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.312xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .358 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 16 pitches seen.320xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .132 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 14 pitches seen.244xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .362 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 22 pitches seen.351xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .339 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.365xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .378 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 14 pitches seen.338xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .201 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 27 pitches seen.255xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .482 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.403xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .261 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 25 pitches seen.281xwOBA .379 shrunk (raw .381 on 19 PA) · league .377 · 106 pitches seen.379xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .461 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.329xwOBA .185 shrunk (raw .130 on 17 PA) · league .263 · 58 pitches seen.185xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .490 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 63 pitches seen.386
vs RHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 19%9%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 14%21%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 23% of 26 swings · league 28%23%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 24%11%Whiff 46% of 33 swings · league 32%46%Whiff 52% of 23 swings · league 49%52%
vs RHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 89% of 27 pitches · league 62%89%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 72%63%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 78% of 27 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 93% of 14 pitches · league 70%93%Swings at 70% of 27 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 68%82%Swings at 60% of 25 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 25% of 106 pitches · league 24%25%Swings at 30% of 30 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 57% of 58 pitches · league 40%57%Swings at 37% of 63 pitches · league 32%37%
vs RHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Troy Johnston against each of Sean Burke's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.1+4″ / +18″.333.33718.4%18.0%25About league average vs these
Curveball19%78.5-6″ / -15″.305.30928.1%27.7%5Little history vs this shape
Slider16%86.1-6″ / +2″.327.33226.9%26.4%19About league average vs these
Cutter15%89.5-4″ / +8″.348.35321.8%21.1%16About league average vs these
Sinker12%95.0+13″ / +14″.346.35018.5%17.7%22About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Troy Johnston · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.200.333.300.296.28216.7%8.3%14.3%85.493.00.0%0.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1330.231.333.346.308.26630.0%6.7%23.4%89.5100.40.0%29.4%35.3%
Last 30 G2869.283.377.417.354.34221.7%7.2%22.4%88.2102.12.2%28.9%37.8%
90 days48119.220.328.320.303.33218.5%10.1%21.9%90.2106.61.3%37.5%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G919.222.263.333.263.24831.6%5.3%26.2%91.5106.90.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1528.231.286.423.307.28728.6%7.1%30.8%89.9106.95.6%27.8%38.9%
90 days2650.239.280.348.282.25624.0%6.0%27.4%89.6106.92.9%32.4%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.200.333.300.296.28216.7%8.3%14.3%85.493.00.0%0.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1549.227.306.341.291.25930.6%6.1%24.5%90.3106.90.0%31.0%34.5%
Last 30 G3097.267.351.419.340.32623.7%7.2%25.1%88.7106.93.2%28.6%38.1%
90 days52169.226.314.329.297.31020.1%8.9%23.7%90.0106.91.8%36.0%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 25%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
Troy Johnston · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches54trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.299 / .331running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.280.460.018Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.790.442.004Out
Sep 22RHPCutter89.877.462.016Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.187.116.909Double
Sep 20RHPSweeper85.872.710.247Single
Sep 17RHPChangeup86.789.1-9.132Out
Sep 17RHPSlider86.493.0-13.124Double play
Sep 17RHPChangeup91.192.98.512Double play
Sep 16LHPCurveball80.284.064.036Out
Sep 16LHPSlider84.591.1-28.042Out
Sep 15RHPSlider84.595.915.803Single
Sep 15RHPSinker94.694.616.636Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 23100010
Sep 22312000
Sep 20111000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16400002
Sep 15435000
Sep 13400002
Sep 11411001
Sep 6500004

Two strikes

Sean Burke CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Sean Burke with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball37%50%17.4%18.8%18.0%
Curveball19%19%28.6%20.7%20.0%
Slider16%14%25.5%23.4%21.1%
Sinker12%10%7.1%11.4%17.0%
Cutter15%8%37.5%27.0%17.9%
Troy Johnston bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Troy Johnston with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.0%41.0%
Whiff%21.0%21.3%
Contact%79.0%78.7%
Chase%41.6%39.6%
wOBA.234.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.5%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%20.3%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%25.6%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

118 PA
wOBA.306
xwOBA vs this mix.333against pitches like his
RV/100-0.57
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%18.5%
BB%8.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS vs COL
5.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.1 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 18.5%19%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 16.7%17%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 12.9%13%78 strikeouts: 9.1%9%89+ strikeouts: 12.2%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%27.2%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%12.1%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff110
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%12995.112.4%
Curveball19%9078.411.7%
Slider16%9786.016.6%
Cutter16%12189.613.2%
Sinker12%8394.95.0%
Changeup1%8386.112.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199819%8%31%.281
Sep 149419%11%29%.312
Sep 110427%10%18%.184

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Burke CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Troy Johnston: every projection we've made →