MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 6Christian Walker
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.343wOBA vs LHP.315xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .328 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .364 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .349 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .319 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Walker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Walker's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 106.1 mph at 32°Out: 91.6 mph at -30°Out: 103.0 mph at 42°Out: 95.7 mph at 45°Single: 101.6 mph at 14°Home run: 109.7 mph at 22°Out: 83.9 mph at 63°Single: 105.6 mph at -9°Out: 104.2 mph at 15°Home run: 104.7 mph at 21°Out: 80.0 mph at 41°Out: 105.3 mph at -6°Out: 94.2 mph at 28°Single: 108.2 mph at 19°Single: 110.7 mph at 1°Out: 62.1 mph at -16°Out: 77.2 mph at 50°Out: 85.3 mph at 43°Out: 80.9 mph at 35°Out: 87.8 mph at 56°Out: 90.3 mph at 56°Out: 86.2 mph at -9°Out: 98.1 mph at 31°Out: 101.7 mph at -10°Out: 70.0 mph at 6°Out: 80.1 mph at 30°Out: 104.5 mph at 20°Out: 81.9 mph at 5°Out: 42.6 mph at 15°Out: 93.3 mph at 24°Out: 57.2 mph at -2°Out: 101.2 mph at 31°Single: 73.6 mph at 20°Out: 60.9 mph at 16°Out: 78.8 mph at -15°Out: 73.2 mph at -36°Out: 68.7 mph at 63°Out: 100.3 mph at 52°Single: 95.6 mph at 4°Out: 87.7 mph at 61°
43% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.8%59.0%+2.9
2+ total bases38.8%34.4%+4.3
Home run16.2%12.2%+4.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+3.3
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Christian Walker hits
Christian Walker · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .224 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 14 pitches seen.282xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .396 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.282xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .425 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.351xwOBA .421 shrunk (raw .494 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.421xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .085 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 12 pitches seen.289xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .228 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seen.264xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .285 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 16 pitches seen.326xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .100 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 7 pitches seen.259xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .337 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 16 pitches seen.312xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .341 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 36 pitches seen.344xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .427 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 59 pitches seen.352xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .260 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 42 pitches seen.258
vs LHP · 259 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 21%10%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 23%38%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 14%22%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 16%40%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 29%36%Whiff 80% of 15 swings · league 48%80%Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 259 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 67%81%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 76%65%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 59%60%Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 30%44%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 26%31%Swings at 25% of 59 pitches · league 31%25%Swings at 29% of 42 pitches · league 41%29%
vs LHP · 259 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Walker against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.328.32430.8%27.9%2Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.364.35918.5%16.6%15About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.349.34522.8%20.7%8About league average vs these
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.319.31537.8%32.0%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Walker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.250.4001.000.540.54220.0%20.0%28.6%97.3106.133.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G613.091.231.364.262.29123.1%15.4%42.9%87.8106.112.5%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1633.148.303.259.270.30124.2%15.2%28.8%86.3108.65.3%26.3%31.6%
90 days3265.212.369.385.356.33020.0%15.4%28.8%87.9110.05.1%30.8%23.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 10%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.267.312.667.406.39731.2%6.2%32.3%99.4109.720.0%80.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1545.209.244.419.284.34922.2%4.4%24.3%89.4110.718.2%48.5%42.4%
Last 30 G2984.195.214.354.255.30920.2%2.4%22.4%88.5110.712.3%41.5%33.8%
90 days65214.196.248.347.265.29327.1%5.1%27.4%87.8110.79.9%38.0%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 26%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.263.333.737.438.43128.6%9.5%31.6%98.9109.723.1%69.2%46.2%
Last 15 G1558.185.241.407.279.33622.4%6.9%27.4%89.1110.717.1%43.9%39.0%
Last 30 G30117.183.239.330.259.30721.4%6.0%24.0%88.0110.710.7%38.1%33.3%
90 days70279.199.276.355.286.30225.4%7.5%27.7%87.8110.78.8%36.5%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 181 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 12%
Christian Walker · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches88trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .311running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball91.6106.1321.737Home run
Sep 25LHPCutter86.991.6-30.062Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.5103.042.421Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.295.745.013Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball79.1101.614.773Single
Sep 24RHPSinker96.9109.7222.000Home run
Sep 23RHPSweeper87.383.963.010Out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.4105.6-9.273Single
Sep 22RHPFastball97.4104.215.720Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.6104.7211.077Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball96.680.041.041Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.9105.3-6.323Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414110
Sep 24425101
Sep 23411002
Sep 22514101
Sep 20400012
Sep 19422000
Sep 18400002
Sep 16400002
Sep 15300002
Sep 13200010

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Christian Walker bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Walker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.8%41.5%
Whiff%22.4%21.6%
Contact%77.6%78.4%
Chase%38.1%39.9%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.300
K%25.5%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV88.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.343
xwOBA vs this mix.315against pitches like his
RV/1000.41
Hard-hit%21.5%
K%20.9%
BB%7.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Walker: every projection we've made →