MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 1Jeremy Peña
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.294wOBA vs LHP.290xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .317 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .353 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .338 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .308 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jeremy Peña's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jeremy Peña's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.5 mph at 27°Out: 98.0 mph at 18°Out: 106.2 mph at -8°Out: 73.2 mph at -21°Out: 86.4 mph at 36°Out: 69.9 mph at 65°Single: 86.9 mph at 16°Out: 68.4 mph at 79°Out: 105.2 mph at 2°Single: 94.4 mph at -3°Out: 94.0 mph at 2°Out: 78.3 mph at -5°Single: 91.5 mph at 17°Triple: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 96.1 mph at 27°Out: 78.6 mph at 37°Out: 69.6 mph at 70°Out: 89.2 mph at 24°Out: 88.4 mph at 7°Single: 87.4 mph at -23°Home run: 103.9 mph at 35°Single: 106.8 mph at 7°Single: 74.9 mph at 26°Out: 84.1 mph at 55°Double: 102.5 mph at 19°Single: 107.7 mph at 11°Home run: 96.7 mph at 30°Home run: 107.3 mph at 28°Out: 60.9 mph at 31°Out: 89.0 mph at 67°Out: 41.2 mph at -7°Single: 99.1 mph at 15°Single: 89.6 mph at -1°Out: 96.5 mph at 36°Single: 107.4 mph at 12°Out: 72.8 mph at -32°Double: 102.4 mph at 20°Out: 89.6 mph at -3°Double: 106.6 mph at 17°Out: 84.6 mph at 48°
40% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.4%66.4%+2.0
2+ total bases44.0%40.1%+3.9
Home run18.1%13.6%+4.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+3.5
Home run
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jeremy Peña hits
Jeremy Peña · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .325 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.259xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .224 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 13 pitches seen.269xwOBA .439 shrunk (raw 1.180 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 7 pitches seen.439xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .082 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.252xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .282 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 16 pitches seen.347xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .329 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.338xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .113 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.233xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .352 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.351xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .268 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.290xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .476 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.337xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .228 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 39 pitches seen.292xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .227 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 52 pitches seen.264xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .153 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 50 pitches seen.212
vs LHP · 278 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 21%27%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 23%25%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 46% of 11 swings · league 14%46%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 25%67%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 29%35%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 48%45%Whiff 67% of 21 swings · league 34%67%
vs LHP · 278 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 71%85%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 64%57%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 67%69%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 76%63%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 40% of 15 pitches · league 59%40%Swings at 92% of 12 pitches · league 68%92%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 17% of 18 pitches · league 30%17%Swings at 51% of 39 pitches · league 26%51%Swings at 39% of 52 pitches · league 31%39%Swings at 42% of 50 pitches · league 41%42%
vs LHP · 278 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jeremy Peña against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.317.32431.7%27.9%1Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.353.35920.3%16.6%18About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.338.34524.7%20.7%13About league average vs these
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.308.31542.0%32.0%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jeremy Peña · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.100.100.100.090.25220.0%0.0%26.1%90.3106.20.0%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1021.286.286.333.274.27623.8%0.0%25.5%92.8107.40.0%43.8%43.8%
Last 30 G1837.297.297.405.307.32824.3%0.0%27.2%92.2107.47.1%39.3%46.4%
90 days3771.212.268.288.252.27928.2%5.6%30.8%90.3107.44.3%34.8%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.385.293.29742.9%0.0%52.0%88.1105.714.3%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1544.262.295.571.364.32638.6%2.3%37.2%87.9107.712.0%40.0%44.0%
Last 30 G3094.216.266.455.317.28637.2%3.2%38.2%87.4107.711.3%35.8%37.7%
90 days60204.264.299.528.361.31130.4%2.5%33.0%89.4107.79.9%42.7%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.174.208.261.208.27933.3%0.0%39.6%89.3106.26.7%33.3%40.0%
Last 15 G1565.270.292.492.335.31033.8%1.5%33.1%89.8107.77.3%41.5%43.9%
Last 30 G30131.240.275.440.314.29833.6%2.3%34.9%89.0107.79.9%37.0%40.7%
90 days62275.251.291.467.332.30329.8%3.3%32.5%89.6107.78.5%40.7%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 177 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
Jeremy Peña · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches28trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .311running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup82.385.527.069Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup81.998.018.408Out
Sep 25LHPFastball96.6106.2-8.335Double play
Sep 25LHPFastball90.773.2-21.050Out
Sep 24RHPSlider86.386.436.015Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.069.965.007Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.086.916.909Single
Sep 24RHPFastball94.468.479.005Out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.3105.22.498Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider86.494.4-3.274Single
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.394.02.431Force out
Sep 20LHPCurveball76.578.3-5.098Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500001
Sep 24511001
Sep 22511002
Sep 20511002
Sep 19413002
Sep 18400002
Sep 17525101
Sep 16434000
Sep 15439201
Sep 13200001

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Jeremy Peña bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jeremy Peña with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.3%41.5%
Whiff%25.1%21.6%
Contact%74.9%78.4%
Chase%40.6%39.9%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.5%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.351
K%28.3%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%17.2%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.4%
Avg EV89.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

70 PA
wOBA.294
xwOBA vs this mix.290against pitches like his
RV/100-0.84
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%27.6%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jeremy Peña: every projection we've made →