MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 9Jorge Barrosa
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.385wOBA vs LHP.330xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Jorge Barrosa: wOBA .331 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Jorge Barrosa: wOBA .367 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Jorge Barrosa: wOBA .353 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Jorge Barrosa: wOBA .322 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jorge Barrosa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jorge Barrosa's last 32 balls in playHit (9)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.1 mph at 5°Out: 81.8 mph at -15°Out: 96.7 mph at 40°Double: 80.7 mph at 17°Out: 61.8 mph at -44°Out: 24.0 mph at 28°Single: 41.0 mph at -61°Out: 76.9 mph at 3°Out: 41.2 mph at -42°Out: 27.0 mph at 2°Out: 96.6 mph at 28°Single: 97.9 mph at 11°Single: 98.2 mph at 13°Single: 98.1 mph at 15°Out: 92.2 mph at 31°Out: 86.8 mph at 39°Out: 94.3 mph at 38°Out: 83.5 mph at 48°Out: 29.7 mph at 5°Out: 34.1 mph at -22°Out: 77.3 mph at 85°Out: 86.1 mph at 34°Single: 31.3 mph at -28°Double: 100.3 mph at 23°Out: 99.0 mph at -11°Out: 93.9 mph at 36°Out: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 25.5 mph at -61°Single: 93.8 mph at 11°Single: 53.7 mph at -71°Out: 81.6 mph at 30°Out: 69.9 mph at -16°
25% hit 95+ mph31% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.3%49.1%+2.3
2+ total bases27.5%24.9%+2.6
Home run8.0%6.5%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+2.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.5
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jorge Barrosa hits
Jorge Barrosa · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seen.273xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .359 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.312xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .293 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seen.336xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .257 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 4 pitches seen.291xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw 1.629 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 7 pitches seen.404xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .281 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 9 pitches seen.333xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .413 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 18 pitches seen.320xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .594 on 3 PA) · league .257 · 11 pitches seen.324
vs LHP · 83 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 10%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 29%33%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 83 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 67%57%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 76%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 59%80%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 30%29%Swings at 33% of 9 pitches · league 26%33%Swings at 33% of 18 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 41%55%
vs LHP · 83 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jorge Barrosa against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.331.32423.2%27.9%1Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.367.35914.3%16.6%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.353.34518.4%20.7%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.322.31527.3%32.0%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jorge Barrosa · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.250.400.500.430.47416.7%16.7%10.0%63.688.10.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1014.222.385.333.412.36621.4%14.3%19.2%70.296.60.0%12.5%50.0%
Last 30 G1419.333.471.500.535.43115.8%15.8%12.5%67.0100.30.0%16.7%41.7%
90 days1419.333.471.500.535.43115.8%15.8%12.5%67.0100.30.0%16.7%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.000.167.000.117.15950.0%16.7%38.5%89.296.70.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G813.273.333.273.300.32638.5%7.7%35.7%77.398.20.0%57.1%42.9%
Last 30 G1832.200.310.200.297.31625.0%12.5%29.8%76.799.00.0%30.0%25.0%
90 days1832.200.310.200.297.31625.0%12.5%29.8%76.799.00.0%30.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.111.273.222.259.30233.3%16.7%26.1%72.296.70.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1527.250.360.300.358.34729.6%11.1%27.8%73.598.20.0%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G2651.243.370.297.385.35821.6%13.7%22.7%73.1100.30.0%25.0%31.2%
90 days2651.243.370.297.385.35821.6%13.7%22.7%73.1100.30.0%25.0%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 3%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .307results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider77.588.15.372Out
Sep 16RHPFastball94.281.8-15.089Out
Sep 13RHPFastball90.396.740.166Out
Sep 13LHPChangeup82.780.717.924Double
Sep 9LHPChangeup86.861.8-44.176Out
Sep 9LHPSinker94.024.028–Sac bunt
Aug 29LHPCutter87.441.0-61.254Single
Aug 28LHPSinker92.676.93.159Error
Aug 16RHPChangeup86.341.2-42–Sac bunt
Aug 16RHPFastball89.327.02.282Force out
Aug 14LHPFastball93.996.628.399Out
Aug 10RHPFastball95.997.911.821Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 16400021
Sep 15100001
Sep 13212000
Sep 9300001
Aug 29111000
Aug 28100000
Aug 17100001
Aug 16300001
Aug 14300001

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Jorge Barrosa bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Jorge Barrosa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.6%41.5%
Whiff%20.6%21.6%
Contact%79.4%78.4%
Chase%39.9%39.9%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.276
K%24.4%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%22.3%
Avg EV84.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

17 PA
wOBA.385
xwOBA vs this mix.330against pitches like his
RV/1000.52
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%20.4%
BB%10.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jorge Barrosa: every projection we've made →