MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 2Lawrence Butler
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedHot
.373wOBA vs RHP.358xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Lawrence Butler: wOBA .370 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Lawrence Butler: wOBA .366 vs league .348 (hitter's edge).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Lawrence Butler: wOBA .313 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Lawrence Butler: wOBA .296 vs league .279 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Lawrence Butler: wOBA .370 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lawrence Butler's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lawrence Butler's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 57.7 mph at 32°Out: 76.2 mph at 0°Out: 98.9 mph at 43°Out: 94.2 mph at 1°Double: 109.0 mph at 19°Single: 90.4 mph at 2°Single: 82.5 mph at 8°Out: 90.3 mph at 0°Single: 101.2 mph at 0°Out: 103.0 mph at 10°Single: 101.7 mph at 3°Triple: 102.6 mph at 36°Out: 102.0 mph at -12°Double: 110.8 mph at 18°Single: 100.2 mph at 9°Out: 35.5 mph at -17°Out: 67.0 mph at -20°Out: 87.2 mph at -12°Out: 81.5 mph at -13°Single: 67.4 mph at 26°Out: 105.0 mph at 4°Out: 91.5 mph at 49°Single: 94.3 mph at -8°Home run: 109.3 mph at 33°Out: 46.8 mph at -71°Single: 85.9 mph at -28°Out: 94.7 mph at -4°Out: 102.9 mph at 45°Out: 92.5 mph at 35°Out: 89.9 mph at -22°Home run: 106.0 mph at 25°Home run: 107.6 mph at 36°Out: 87.4 mph at 31°Out: 90.2 mph at -32°Out: 94.6 mph at 8°Home run: 106.9 mph at 25°Double: 89.2 mph at 15°Out: 66.2 mph at 82°Single: 88.8 mph at 14°Out: 77.4 mph at 5°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%62.4%+0.5
2+ total bases38.9%37.0%+1.9
Home run16.0%13.7%+2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.8
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+2.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+3.2
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+2.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Lawrence Butler hits
Lawrence Butler · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .416 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.326xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .617 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.431xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .383 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.323xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .259 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 46 pitches seen.292xwOBA .409 shrunk (raw .425 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 51 pitches seen.409xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .451 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 49 pitches seen.402xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .331 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 43 pitches seen.318xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .240 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 44 pitches seen.283xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .340 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.318xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .401 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 135 pitches seen.392xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .520 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 51 pitches seen.386xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .240 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 108 pitches seen.250xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .315 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 177 pitches seen.302
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 23% of 31 swings · league 22%23%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 20%21%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 19%5%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 10% of 39 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 7% of 41 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 14%28%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 13%10%Whiff 18% of 28 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 36% of 25 swings · league 28%36%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 24%10%Whiff 24% of 29 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 55% of 42 swings · league 49%55%
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 76% of 41 pitches · league 62%76%Swings at 94% of 36 pitches · league 72%94%Swings at 91% of 22 pitches · league 66%91%Swings at 72% of 46 pitches · league 70%72%Swings at 77% of 51 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 84% of 49 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 58% of 43 pitches · league 65%58%Swings at 71% of 44 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 68% of 41 pitches · league 60%68%Swings at 19% of 135 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 39% of 51 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 27% of 108 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 24% of 177 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Lawrence Butler against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.370.35213.8%15.6%52About league average vs these
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.366.34815.1%17.6%57About league average vs these
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.313.29636.7%32.5%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.296.27924.6%27.1%16About league average vs these
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.370.35224.2%21.1%21About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lawrence Butler · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.333.412.467.441.38423.5%11.8%27.6%89.8110.818.2%45.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1550.289.360.622.431.40126.0%8.0%24.8%89.5110.818.8%34.4%34.4%
Last 30 G2792.304.391.570.418.39229.3%12.0%22.6%91.6110.815.1%47.2%37.7%
90 days68197.280.376.488.379.36224.9%13.2%20.4%91.1110.810.7%47.1%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 121 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.500.833.600.47314.3%0.0%11.1%89.3102.60.0%66.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1317.286.375.429.369.3615.9%11.8%8.3%86.0102.60.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 30 G2140.257.333.400.331.32727.5%10.0%21.3%89.6107.84.0%44.0%20.0%
90 days52108.242.321.421.338.30625.9%9.3%23.3%88.7107.87.2%43.5%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 14%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.381.435.571.483.40720.8%8.3%23.7%89.6110.811.8%52.9%35.3%
Last 15 G1567.288.364.576.416.39220.9%9.0%21.6%88.4110.813.0%32.6%28.3%
Last 30 G30132.289.374.518.392.37228.8%11.4%22.3%90.9110.811.5%46.2%32.1%
90 days77305.266.356.464.365.34325.2%11.8%21.3%90.2110.89.5%45.8%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 190 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 16%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
Lawrence Butler · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating81Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.367 / .352results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter94.757.732.309Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.176.20.091Fielder's choice
Sep 25RHPFastball96.098.943.105Out
Sep 25LHPFastball90.094.21.371Double play
Sep 24RHPFastball92.9109.0191.101Double
Sep 24RHPFastball97.490.42.296Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup86.082.58.407Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup92.690.30.275Out
Sep 23LHPFastball90.6101.20.386Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.1103.010.812Out
Sep 23RHPSinker100.9101.73.503Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball84.1102.636.959Triple
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500010
Sep 24534002
Sep 23522001
Sep 22536000
Sep 20400012
Sep 19511010
Sep 18400021
Sep 17425101
Sep 16411002
Sep 15400002

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Lawrence Butler bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lawrence Butler with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.0%41.0%
Whiff%19.6%21.3%
Contact%80.4%78.7%
Chase%33.1%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.9%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.353
K%25.6%
BB%11.7%
Whiff%10.0%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%28.5%
Avg EV90.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

194 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.358against pitches like his
RV/1001.17
Hard-hit%28.6%
K%25.0%
BB%12.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lawrence Butler: every projection we've made →