MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 5Yainer Diaz
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.353wOBA vs LHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .329 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .365 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .350 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .320 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yainer Diaz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yainer Diaz's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.4 mph at -17°Double: 80.3 mph at 27°Single: 106.1 mph at 12°Out: 92.7 mph at -17°Out: 76.9 mph at 64°Out: 84.9 mph at 12°Out: 105.8 mph at 14°Home run: 99.5 mph at 31°Out: 70.5 mph at 4°Triple: 101.6 mph at 17°Out: 67.4 mph at 39°Single: 89.5 mph at 11°Single: 100.6 mph at 14°Out: 94.3 mph at 2°Out: 103.8 mph at 26°Out: 82.5 mph at -13°Single: 87.2 mph at -17°Home run: 102.5 mph at 25°Out: 77.1 mph at -4°Out: 98.5 mph at -13°Out: 58.7 mph at -33°Double: 108.0 mph at 13°Out: 103.8 mph at 8°Out: 78.5 mph at 36°Single: 98.3 mph at -4°Out: 84.6 mph at 41°Out: 76.0 mph at -23°Out: 89.4 mph at 61°Out: 94.6 mph at 3°Single: 88.7 mph at 14°Home run: 104.9 mph at 20°Out: 101.3 mph at 20°Out: 81.7 mph at 2°Out: 86.6 mph at 25°Single: 99.4 mph at -3°Out: 94.2 mph at 61°Single: 96.5 mph at -4°Single: 81.9 mph at -10°Single: 102.4 mph at -23°Out: 83.6 mph at 4°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit71.8%68.3%+3.5
2+ total bases48.1%42.7%+5.4
Home run18.1%13.2%+4.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+3.5
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Yainer Diaz hits
Yainer Diaz · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .144 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.274xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .006 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.219xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .436 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.326xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .162 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 15 pitches seen.311xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .396 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 10 pitches seen.351xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .117 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seen.251xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .344 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.349xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .286 on 6 PA) · league .299 · 8 pitches seen.295xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .729 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 9 pitches seen.335xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .382 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 25 pitches seen.361xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .114 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 29 pitches seen.245xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .298 on 13 PA) · league .257 · 43 pitches seen.278
vs LHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 21%40%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 23%25%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 16%14%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 29%40%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 48%42%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 34%21%
vs LHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 63%60%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 71%91%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 67%83%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 59%100%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 68%43%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 66%88%Swings at 22% of 9 pitches · league 30%22%Swings at 40% of 25 pitches · league 26%40%Swings at 41% of 29 pitches · league 31%41%Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 41%67%
vs LHP · 176 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Yainer Diaz against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.329.32427.9%27.9%1Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.365.35918.7%16.6%10About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.350.34523.0%20.7%10About league average vs these
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.320.31529.0%32.0%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yainer Diaz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.600.6001.400.830.3590.0%0.0%25.0%87.8102.520.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G614.571.5711.000.668.3910.0%0.0%15.4%95.5109.114.3%50.0%28.6%
Last 30 G1426.440.462.840.546.35711.5%0.0%19.1%93.9109.118.2%50.0%31.8%
90 days3053.320.358.540.386.27920.8%3.8%21.1%91.3109.110.3%41.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.294.294.588.371.45817.6%0.0%16.0%90.8106.114.3%42.9%57.1%
Last 15 G1542.282.333.487.355.35819.0%4.8%22.1%89.9106.19.7%41.9%41.9%
Last 30 G3082.321.354.526.390.31517.1%3.7%20.6%91.7107.64.7%45.3%31.2%
90 days56162.290.321.497.366.34114.2%3.1%17.6%89.8110.36.1%44.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 22%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.364.364.773.475.43613.6%0.0%18.9%90.0106.115.8%36.8%52.6%
Last 15 G1556.358.393.623.433.36714.3%3.6%20.2%91.6109.111.1%44.4%37.8%
Last 30 G30108.350.380.602.428.32515.7%2.8%20.3%92.2109.18.1%46.5%31.4%
90 days58215.298.330.507.371.32515.8%3.3%18.6%90.1110.37.1%43.5%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 170 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 22%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 9%
Yainer Diaz · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating78Above average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .345running 25 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider75.086.4-17.065Out
Sep 25LHPSlider75.780.327.227Double
Sep 25RHPSlider87.7106.112.965Single
Sep 25RHPSlider89.192.7-17.139Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.376.964.008Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.984.912.581Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.6105.814.740Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter86.899.531.717Home run
Sep 23RHPSplitter88.370.54.130Out
Sep 23RHPSinker89.9101.617.459Triple
Sep 23RHPSlider90.067.439.499Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.889.511.606Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423000
Sep 24400002
Sep 23527100
Sep 22522001
Sep 20425100
Sep 19412000
Sep 18100001
Sep 17411000
Sep 16425100
Sep 15300000

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Yainer Diaz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yainer Diaz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.0%41.5%
Whiff%23.8%21.6%
Contact%76.2%78.4%
Chase%44.1%39.9%
wOBA.257.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.345
K%16.6%
BB%3.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%34.0%
Avg EV90.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

54 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/1001.15
Hard-hit%29.9%
K%22.0%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yainer Diaz: every projection we've made →