MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAA · batting 6Josh Lowe
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.333wOBA vs RHP.323xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SEABryce Miller
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Trending Up
5.5projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bryce Miller's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 37% usage, 95.7 mph, +4.0″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .342 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 37%Splitter: 25% usage, 84.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .275 vs league .273 (about even).Splitter 25%Sinker: 11% usage, 95.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +13.7″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .354 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 11%Slider: 10% usage, 86.9 mph, -4.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .330 vs league .328 (about even).Slider 10%Sweeper: 8% usage, 83.5 mph, -15.2″ arm side, -7.3″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .297 vs league .295 (about even).Sweeper 8%Cutter: 6% usage, 91.1 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +10.1″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .358 vs league .356 (about even).Cutter 6%Curveball: 3% usage, 82.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Josh Lowe: wOBA .306 vs league .304 (about even).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Lowe's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Lowe's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.8 mph at 7°Double: 80.7 mph at 24°Single: 91.7 mph at 17°Out: 97.8 mph at 65°Out: 87.8 mph at 48°Out: 98.9 mph at 33°Out: 103.2 mph at 22°Out: 88.7 mph at 11°Double: 90.5 mph at 18°Out: 77.2 mph at -4°Out: 57.2 mph at -61°Double: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 92.6 mph at 23°Single: 36.6 mph at -39°Home run: 100.1 mph at 28°Single: 97.8 mph at 11°Out: 80.1 mph at 68°Out: 93.1 mph at 25°Double: 100.7 mph at 21°Out: 100.8 mph at 34°Out: 77.6 mph at -1°Home run: 105.4 mph at 33°Out: 66.3 mph at -39°Out: 98.5 mph at -8°Out: 76.2 mph at 8°Out: 94.4 mph at 11°Single: 72.9 mph at -5°Out: 70.6 mph at 58°Out: 94.9 mph at 49°Out: 91.1 mph at 20°Out: 84.6 mph at 28°Out: 75.4 mph at 13°Out: 73.8 mph at 69°Single: 75.7 mph at 0°Single: 70.9 mph at 32°Out: 93.8 mph at 34°Single: 102.3 mph at -20°Double: 60.0 mph at -1°Out: 94.9 mph at -10°Out: 87.1 mph at 30°
30% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.0%54.8%+0.2
2+ total bases32.8%32.3%+0.5
Home run12.8%11.5%+1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Josh Lowe hits
Josh Lowe · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .274 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.274xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .140 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 42 pitches seen.231xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .210 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.245xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .392 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.369xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .284 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.328xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .355 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.332xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .225 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 20 pitches seen.270xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .412 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 27 pitches seen.373xwOBA .438 shrunk (raw .554 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.438xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .389 on 21 PA) · league .377 · 143 pitches seen.385xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .245 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.260xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .391 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 97 pitches seen.327xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .241 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 134 pitches seen.251
vs RHP · 724 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 25 swings · league 22%40%Whiff 41% of 34 swings · league 20%41%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 19%23%Whiff 32% of 37 swings · league 10%32%Whiff 23% of 44 swings · league 9%23%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 14%32%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 13%21%Whiff 26% of 31 swings · league 17%26%Whiff 46% of 24 swings · league 28%46%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 33% of 48 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 43% of 60 swings · league 49%43%
vs RHP · 724 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 35 pitches · league 62%71%Swings at 81% of 42 pitches · league 72%81%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 82% of 45 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 90% of 49 pitches · league 76%90%Swings at 75% of 32 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 95% of 20 pitches · league 65%95%Swings at 89% of 27 pitches · league 68%89%Swings at 78% of 40 pitches · league 60%78%Swings at 17% of 143 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 51% of 43 pitches · league 34%51%Swings at 50% of 97 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 45% of 134 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 724 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Lowe against each of Bryce Miller's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball37%95.7+4″ / +19″.342.34030.5%18.0%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter25%84.2+9″ / +5″.275.27334.6%27.8%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker11%95.0+13″ / +14″.354.35229.2%16.7%42About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider10%86.9-4″ / +1″.330.32832.7%27.0%21About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper8%83.5-15″ / -7″.297.29534.8%28.8%12About league average vs these
Cutter6%91.1-4″ / +10″.358.35631.2%18.3%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball3%82.9-3″ / -13″.306.30434.5%28.4%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Lowe · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.214.231.204.31835.7%0.0%35.0%93.3103.212.5%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1541.189.268.351.274.27741.5%4.9%39.6%87.5103.210.0%40.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2877.235.325.426.330.28233.8%9.1%32.8%85.7105.47.1%31.0%45.2%
90 days59161.220.312.426.330.32630.4%10.6%32.6%88.5109.610.8%39.8%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G33.333.333.667.417.26366.7%0.0%40.0%99.299.2100.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 30 G1017.200.235.267.221.23041.2%5.9%30.0%85.7103.211.1%33.3%44.4%
90 days1934.194.235.226.210.21535.3%5.9%29.7%82.9103.25.0%35.0%35.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 15%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.154.214.231.204.31835.7%0.0%35.0%93.3103.212.5%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1544.200.273.375.284.27643.2%4.5%39.6%88.1103.214.3%42.9%52.4%
Last 30 G3094.229.309.398.310.27235.1%8.5%32.3%85.7105.47.8%31.4%45.1%
90 days63195.215.299.390.309.30631.3%9.7%32.2%87.5109.69.7%38.9%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 10%
Josh Lowe · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating56Average
Last 100 pitches51steady
wOBA / xwOBA.314 / .322results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball81.997.87.547Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.480.724.416Double
Sep 24RHPFastball96.491.717.678Single
Sep 24RHPCutter87.697.865.017Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.387.848.008Out
Sep 20RHPFastball90.798.933.536Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.1103.222.927Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper76.388.711.592Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.390.518.586Double
Sep 19RHPCutter90.577.2-4.105Out
Sep 17RHPSplitter91.357.2-61.235Out
Sep 17LHPCutter87.399.226.788Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24423000
Sep 23200001
Sep 22100001
Sep 20300000
Sep 19512003
Sep 18100001
Sep 17412002
Sep 16311001
Sep 15325101

Two strikes

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Bryce Miller with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter25%37%23.4%17.2%19.0%
Fastball37%35%16.5%19.5%18.0%
Sweeper8%14%15.4%8.2%19.3%
Curveball3%5%16.7%11.8%20.0%
Sinker11%4%0.0%14.3%17.0%
Slider10%3%33.3%36.4%21.1%
Cutter6%2%0.0%0.0%17.9%
Josh Lowe bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Lowe with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.3%41.0%
Whiff%21.1%21.3%
Contact%78.9%78.7%
Chase%38.9%39.6%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.4%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%28.8%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%16.3%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%23.6%
Avg EV87.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

160 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/1000.25
Hard-hit%23.4%
K%28.3%
BB%9.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bryce MillerRHP · SEA vs LAA
5.5projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.9 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 20.0%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.5%16%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 15.6%16%67 strikeouts: 12.4%12%78 strikeouts: 8.5%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.0%11%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 32% (red bars) · under: 68%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.6%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo90.2
BTB Stuff106
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball37%11795.68.9%
Splitter25%9784.216.1%
Sinker11%9895.10.0%
Slider10%9886.811.8%
Sweeper8%10283.47.4%
Cutter6%11891.414.9%
Curveball3%9383.08.6%
Other0%–92.00.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198927%8%9%.250
Sep 139223%14%14%.373
Sep 88433%11%22%.378

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bryce Miller SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Lowe: every projection we've made →