MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SEA · batting 3Julio Rodríguez
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.281wOBA vs LHP.307xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LAAReid Detmers
Throws leftBTB Stuff 105Stable
6.2projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Reid Detmers's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 94.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .332 vs league .344 (about even).Fastball 47%Slider: 35% usage, 85.8 mph, -3.4″ arm side, -4.7″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .283 vs league .295 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 12% usage, 72.2 mph, -11.6″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .298 vs league .310 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 84.0 mph, +10.9″ arm side, +11.3″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .286 vs league .298 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Julio Rodríguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Julio Rodríguez's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.1 mph at 49°Out: 85.8 mph at 7°Out: 94.7 mph at -12°Single: 77.3 mph at 14°Home run: 109.2 mph at 25°Double: 103.9 mph at 17°Single: 81.7 mph at 6°Single: 34.5 mph at -37°Out: 78.4 mph at 64°Out: 102.2 mph at 35°Out: 92.2 mph at 42°Single: 102.6 mph at -2°Single: 87.0 mph at 11°Out: 99.9 mph at -14°Out: 101.6 mph at 6°Single: 90.8 mph at -51°Single: 62.2 mph at 41°Out: 103.4 mph at 40°Out: 67.0 mph at -16°Double: 87.8 mph at 3°Out: 74.7 mph at -8°Out: 81.1 mph at 38°Out: 93.9 mph at 67°Single: 97.7 mph at 0°Out: 104.6 mph at -25°Double: 93.5 mph at 21°Double: 111.4 mph at 10°Out: 101.9 mph at -2°Out: 93.5 mph at 24°Out: 103.1 mph at 21°Single: 103.2 mph at 13°Out: 88.4 mph at -42°Out: 81.0 mph at 5°Out: 102.8 mph at 7°Out: 79.3 mph at 79°Single: 94.9 mph at -2°Single: 100.0 mph at 1°Double: 93.3 mph at 22°Out: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 74.9 mph at 11°
40% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%66.1%-3.1
2+ total bases35.5%37.3%-1.8
Home run14.3%13.1%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-1.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-1.4
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Julio Rodríguez hits
Julio Rodríguez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .347 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 15 pitches seen.269xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .457 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 26 pitches seen.350xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .326 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 15 pitches seen.268xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .244 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.287xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .376 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 26 pitches seen.381xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .238 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 18 pitches seen.306xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .158 on 9 PA) · league .273 · 19 pitches seen.224xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .215 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 13 pitches seen.310xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .572 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 12 pitches seen.367xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .231 on 7 PA) · league .302 · 50 pitches seen.276xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .200 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 64 pitches seen.288xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .337 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 83 pitches seen.315xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .299 on 24 PA) · league .257 · 72 pitches seen.285
vs LHP · 432 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 21%21%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 23%25%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 10%24%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 14%27%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 16%17%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 25%21%Whiff 59% of 17 swings · league 29%59%Whiff 45% of 29 swings · league 48%45%Whiff 31% of 39 swings · league 34%31%
vs LHP · 432 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 64%80%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 67%74%Swings at 65% of 26 pitches · league 76%65%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 72%72%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 59%58%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 68%85%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 38% of 50 pitches · league 30%38%Swings at 27% of 64 pitches · league 26%27%Swings at 35% of 83 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 54% of 72 pitches · league 41%54%
vs LHP · 432 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Julio Rodríguez against each of Reid Detmers's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%94.0+9″ / +17″.332.34419.6%18.4%31About league average vs these
Slider35%85.8-3″ / -5″.283.29537.1%33.4%9About league average vs these
Curveball12%72.2-12″ / -15″.298.31031.5%28.1%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%84.0+11″ / +11″.286.29836.8%31.9%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Julio Rodríguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.333.200.267.27133.3%16.7%21.4%85.192.20.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1228.304.429.348.365.34025.0%17.9%19.2%92.7106.26.2%50.0%31.2%
Last 30 G2351.217.294.261.258.26331.4%9.8%28.0%91.4107.26.7%50.0%26.7%
90 days48106.208.283.271.264.30231.1%9.4%27.2%90.7109.96.3%46.0%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.500.562.786.572.4816.2%0.0%9.7%90.7109.215.4%46.2%23.1%
Last 15 G1338.361.395.639.439.36313.2%0.0%16.9%92.7112.49.7%48.4%22.6%
Last 30 G2881.260.296.455.335.31019.8%2.5%18.4%91.6112.48.2%47.5%23.0%
90 days63180.270.322.448.338.33119.4%6.1%21.8%90.1112.48.4%42.7%31.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.421.500.632.489.42413.6%4.5%13.3%89.7109.212.5%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1566.339.409.525.408.35318.2%7.6%17.8%92.7112.48.5%48.9%25.5%
Last 30 G30132.244.295.382.305.29224.2%5.3%22.4%91.5112.47.7%48.4%24.2%
90 days66286.247.308.382.311.32023.8%7.3%24.0%90.3112.47.7%43.8%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
Julio Rodríguez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.316 / .334running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider83.993.149.003Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.885.87.388Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.094.7-12.183Out
Sep 24LHPSinker87.677.314.535Single
Sep 24RHPFastball96.5109.2252.000Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker93.1103.917.563Double
Sep 23RHPCutter93.681.76.351Single
Sep 23RHPSinker94.234.5-37.268Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.578.464.005Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper82.8102.235.891Out
Sep 22LHPSlider84.292.242.005Out
Sep 22RHPCutter86.4102.6-2.391Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500002
Sep 24425101
Sep 23534010
Sep 22422000
Sep 20411000
Sep 19423000
Sep 18400001
Sep 16523011
Sep 15412001
Sep 14400012

Two strikes

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Reid Detmers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%46%14.5%18.8%18.6%
Slider35%41%39.3%28.1%21.6%
Curveball12%7%23.1%21.2%21.2%
Changeup7%5%18.2%9.1%18.3%
Julio Rodríguez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Julio Rodríguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.7%41.5%
Whiff%24.0%21.6%
Contact%76.0%78.4%
Chase%37.2%39.9%
wOBA.231.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.4%25.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.330
K%22.9%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%11.9%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%30.5%
Avg EV90.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

104 PA
wOBA.281
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/100-1.18
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%28.6%
BB%7.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Reid DetmersLHP · LAA vs SEA
6.2projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 13.4%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.3%12%45 strikeouts: 15.4%15%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 14.1%14%78 strikeouts: 11.0%11%89+ strikeouts: 17.9%18%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%29.8%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%13.4%
Velo87.9
BTB Stuff105
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10694.08.6%
Slider35%11585.818.5%
Curveball12%8672.211.2%
Changeup7%7584.024.5%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198124%14%29%.360
Sep 149532%14%32%.338
Sep 811243%12%5%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Julio Rodríguez: every projection we've made →