MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 25, 2026
9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SEA · batting 9Leo Rivas
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.286wOBA vs LHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · LAAReid Detmers
Throws leftBTB Stuff 105Stable
6.2projected K30%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Reid Detmers's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 94.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .339 vs league .344 (about even).Fastball 47%Slider: 35% usage, 85.8 mph, -3.4″ arm side, -4.7″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .291 vs league .295 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 12% usage, 72.2 mph, -11.6″ arm side, -14.6″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .306 vs league .310 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 84.0 mph, +10.9″ arm side, +11.3″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .294 vs league .298 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Rivas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Rivas's last 17 balls in playHit (5)Out (12)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 60.2 mph at 52°Out: 88.1 mph at 4°Single: 94.4 mph at 10°Out: 86.9 mph at 6°Out: 90.7 mph at 27°Out: 88.1 mph at 45°Out: 99.0 mph at -6°Single: 64.9 mph at 31°Double: 96.7 mph at 9°Single: 89.6 mph at 16°Out: 81.2 mph at 8°Out: 86.1 mph at -28°Out: 75.4 mph at 66°Single: 100.8 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -27°Out: 97.2 mph at 46°Out: 88.5 mph at 7°
24% hit 95+ mph41% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.9%53.3%-1.4
2+ total bases25.4%26.2%-0.9
Home run7.1%6.9%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Leo Rivas hits
Leo Rivas · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .489 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seen.322xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .016 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 3 pitches seen.311xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .137 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seen.311xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .153 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seen.256xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .729 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seen.335xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .289 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .289 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .028 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 5 pitches seen.239
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 23%100%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 11%50%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 16%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 48%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 71%0%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 67%25%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 68%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 66%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 0% of 6 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 13% of 8 pitches · league 31%13%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 41%60%
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Rivas against each of Reid Detmers's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%94.0+9″ / +17″.339.34418.4%18.4%3Little history vs this shape
Slider35%85.8-3″ / -5″.291.29533.7%33.4%1Little history vs this shape
Curveball12%72.2-12″ / -15″.306.31028.5%28.1%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup7%84.0+11″ / +11″.294.29832.6%31.9%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Rivas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.200.000.140.20640.0%0.0%37.5%79.699.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 30 G610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
90 days610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.500.500.625.494.4800.0%0.0%0.0%87.496.70.0%12.5%62.5%
Last 15 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Last 30 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
90 days713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.417.358.37515.4%0.0%16.7%85.999.00.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
Last 30 G923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
90 days923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.300 / .357running 57 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/8
2+ total bases1/8
Home run0/8

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup82.060.252.028Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.088.14.440Double play
Sep 24RHPFastball95.694.410.628Single
Aug 23RHPSplitter85.286.96.423Out
Aug 23RHPFastball75.790.727.118Out
Aug 23RHPSinker93.988.145.006Out
Aug 22LHPSinker92.399.0-6.274Out
Aug 22RHPChangeup84.964.931.809Single
Aug 22RHPFastball95.196.79.538Double
Aug 21RHPSweeper87.789.616.876Single
Aug 13LHPSweeper81.281.28.306Double play
Aug 13LHPFastball92.786.1-28.045Out
Last 9 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24211000
Aug 23400001
Aug 22423000
Aug 21111000
Aug 13200000
Aug 12100001
Aug 6311001
Aug 2400010

Two strikes

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Reid Detmers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%46%14.5%18.8%18.6%
Slider35%41%39.3%28.1%21.6%
Curveball12%7%23.1%21.2%21.2%
Changeup7%5%18.2%9.1%18.3%
Leo Rivas bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Rivas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%41.5%
Whiff%22.3%21.6%
Contact%77.7%78.4%
Chase%39.0%39.9%
wOBA.240.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.8%25.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.333
K%21.3%
BB%13.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%17.8%
Avg EV87.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

8 PA
wOBA.286
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/100-0.53
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%22.1%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Reid DetmersLHP · LAA vs SEA
6.2projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 13.4%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.3%12%45 strikeouts: 15.4%15%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 14.1%14%78 strikeouts: 11.0%11%89+ strikeouts: 17.9%18%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%29.8%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%13.4%
Velo87.9
BTB Stuff105
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10694.08.6%
Slider35%11585.818.5%
Curveball12%8672.211.2%
Changeup7%7584.024.5%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198124%14%29%.360
Sep 149532%14%32%.338
Sep 811243%12%5%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Reid Detmers LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Rivas: every projection we've made →