MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 2Brett Harris
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.311wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .316 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .323 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .352 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .322 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Brett Harris: wOBA .295 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brett Harris's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brett Harris's last 22 balls in playHit (6)Out (16)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 102.0 mph at 20°Out: 99.2 mph at 15°Out: 78.2 mph at -39°Out: 86.2 mph at 28°Single: 91.5 mph at 0°Single: 67.7 mph at 26°Out: 103.6 mph at 14°Out: 91.2 mph at -17°Double: 91.9 mph at 24°Out: 70.7 mph at -3°Single: 98.5 mph at -11°Single: 89.2 mph at 7°Out: 100.9 mph at -9°Out: 84.5 mph at 66°Double: 103.1 mph at 22°Out: 28.1 mph at 15°Out: 75.8 mph at -52°Out: 94.7 mph at -11°Out: 95.4 mph at 23°Out: 97.1 mph at 25°Out: 96.3 mph at -4°Out: 77.7 mph at -7°
41% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot27% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.7%56.9%-3.3
2+ total bases25.9%28.8%-3.0
Home run5.5%7.3%-1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brett Harris hits
Brett Harris · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.285xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .300 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 6 pitches seen.364xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .278 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 5 pitches seen.328xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .711 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seen.378xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .248 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.286xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.259xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .406 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 17 pitches seen.361xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .729 on 1 PA) · league .289 · 14 pitches seen.323xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .154 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 9 pitches seen.242
vs LHP · 84 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 11%40%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 25%50%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 29%20%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 34%67%
vs LHP · 84 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 59%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 66%44%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 29% of 17 pitches · league 26%29%Swings at 21% of 14 pitches · league 31%21%Swings at 33% of 9 pitches · league 41%33%
vs LHP · 84 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brett Harris against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.316.31719.0%18.2%6Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.323.32326.0%27.8%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.352.35218.1%17.6%5Little history vs this shape
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.322.32219.3%21.2%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.295.29626.8%29.1%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brett Harris · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.000.111.000.078.31444.4%11.1%38.1%95.8103.60.0%75.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1123.200.273.300.268.30026.1%4.3%28.6%89.1103.66.7%46.7%40.0%
Last 30 G1123.200.273.300.268.30026.1%4.3%28.6%89.1103.66.7%46.7%40.0%
90 days1123.200.273.300.268.30026.1%4.3%28.6%89.1103.66.7%46.7%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 15 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 40%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.286.312.24850.0%12.5%23.1%81.891.50.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 15 G1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
Last 30 G1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
90 days1018.125.222.125.188.20444.4%5.6%26.9%83.897.10.0%28.6%57.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 14%Fly ball 43%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.133.235.133.188.28347.1%11.8%32.4%89.8103.60.0%42.9%71.4%
Last 15 G1341.167.250.222.233.25834.1%4.9%27.9%87.4103.64.5%40.9%45.5%
Last 30 G1341.167.250.222.233.25834.1%4.9%27.9%87.4103.64.5%40.9%45.5%
90 days1341.167.250.222.233.25834.1%4.9%27.9%87.4103.64.5%40.9%45.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 32%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 5%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.249 / .255results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball98.3102.020.642Out
Sep 25LHPFastball97.799.215.701Out
Sep 23LHPSlider90.278.2-39.076Out
Sep 21RHPCutter90.886.228.087Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.691.50.301Single
Sep 21RHPCutter91.767.726.900Single
Sep 20LHPFastball94.4103.614.711Out
Sep 19LHPSlider88.591.2-17.109Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.891.924.183Double
Sep 18RHPSinker95.970.7-3.055Out
Sep 18LHPSlider86.198.5-11.199Single
Sep 16LHPChangeup85.789.27.519Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 23300002
Sep 22200011
Sep 21422001
Sep 20400012
Sep 19312001
Sep 18411002
Sep 16411001
Sep 15212001
Sep 14300000

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Brett Harris bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Harris with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.5%
Whiff%21.9%21.6%
Contact%78.1%78.4%
Chase%40.3%39.9%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.5%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%25.3%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%21.8%
Avg EV85.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

19 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.34
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%23.8%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Harris: every projection we've made →