MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 3Freddie Freeman
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.338wOBA vs RHP.351xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFYunior Marte
Throws rightBTB Stuff 78Trending Down
3.9projected K13%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yunior Marte's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 45% usage, 93.3 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .370 vs league .366 (about even).Fastball 45%Slider: 42% usage, 85.3 mph, -1.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .343 vs league .339 (about even).Slider 42%Splitter: 13% usage, 82.8 mph, +7.1″ arm side, +3.3″ rise. Freddie Freeman: wOBA .283 vs league .280 (about even).Splitter 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Freddie Freeman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Freddie Freeman's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.0 mph at 6°Out: 90.2 mph at 34°Out: 83.5 mph at 1°Out: 78.5 mph at -17°Single: 99.8 mph at 2°Single: 99.1 mph at 13°Out: 85.0 mph at 22°Out: 80.3 mph at 31°Out: 101.3 mph at 24°Out: 101.0 mph at 4°Single: 77.8 mph at 21°Single: 92.5 mph at 1°Single: 73.1 mph at 9°Out: 97.7 mph at -9°Single: 95.1 mph at 3°Out: 75.7 mph at 1°Out: 103.0 mph at 23°Out: 63.3 mph at 1°Out: 104.1 mph at 11°Out: 96.3 mph at 39°Out: 84.7 mph at 45°Single: 99.8 mph at 11°Out: 102.2 mph at 26°Single: 78.2 mph at 6°Out: 96.9 mph at 22°Out: 79.3 mph at 62°Out: 94.4 mph at 58°Single: 95.8 mph at 21°Out: 84.5 mph at -24°Out: 88.6 mph at -2°Single: 80.9 mph at 11°Single: 82.1 mph at 19°Out: 84.7 mph at 8°Out: 98.8 mph at -17°Out: 104.1 mph at -12°Out: 68.9 mph at 20°Out: 78.2 mph at -17°Out: 89.0 mph at 5°Out: 81.7 mph at -11°Out: 75.1 mph at -4°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.7%67.8%-0.1
2+ total bases38.5%39.2%-0.7
Home run8.4%9.4%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
-1.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.6
Home run
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Freddie Freeman hits
Freddie Freeman · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .540 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.352xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .363 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 41 pitches seen.335xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .185 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.240xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .505 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 44 pitches seen.427xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .240 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 40 pitches seen.320xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .224 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.273xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .185 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 36 pitches seen.249xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .481 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 39 pitches seen.427xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .366 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.327xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .378 on 27 PA) · league .377 · 135 pitches seen.378xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .338 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.308xwOBA .213 shrunk (raw .186 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 119 pitches seen.213xwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .440 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 148 pitches seen.391
vs RHP · 798 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 22%22%Whiff 27% of 33 swings · league 20%27%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 19%28%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 16% of 31 swings · league 9%16%Whiff 0% of 30 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 23% of 22 swings · league 17%23%Whiff 27% of 41 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 15% of 39 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 33% of 39 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 56% of 50 swings · league 49%56%
vs RHP · 798 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 72%81%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 66%82%Swings at 71% of 44 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 78% of 40 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 70% of 43 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 58% of 36 pitches · league 65%58%Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 67% of 33 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 30% of 135 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 53% of 74 pitches · league 34%53%Swings at 33% of 119 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 34% of 148 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 798 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Freddie Freeman against each of Yunior Marte's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball45%93.3+8″ / +15″.370.36616.6%15.3%40About league average vs these
Slider42%85.3-2″ / +0″.343.33931.1%28.7%21About league average vs these
Splitter13%82.8+7″ / +3″.283.28028.6%30.2%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Freddie Freeman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.231.231.231.277.27330.8%0.0%26.9%89.5101.311.1%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1540.243.275.243.260.34322.5%2.5%30.2%87.8104.110.3%37.9%44.8%
Last 30 G2985.257.353.286.308.36721.2%11.8%28.9%87.7107.37.3%36.4%47.3%
90 days65191.298.361.363.332.35318.8%8.9%23.7%87.4109.15.2%34.1%47.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 135 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 36%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.375.338.31825.0%0.0%27.8%91.4101.00.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1126.120.154.120.131.17730.8%3.8%32.7%87.2104.20.0%35.3%17.6%
Last 30 G2347.222.255.311.252.26627.7%4.3%27.4%89.3105.23.1%37.5%40.6%
90 days51113.274.319.358.317.33218.6%6.2%23.2%88.1105.52.4%38.1%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 84 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 25%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.286.286.286.300.29028.6%0.0%27.3%90.3101.36.7%46.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1566.194.227.194.209.27825.8%3.0%31.2%87.6104.26.5%37.0%34.8%
Last 30 G30132.243.318.296.288.33123.5%9.1%28.4%88.3107.35.7%36.8%44.8%
90 days72304.288.345.361.327.34518.8%7.9%23.5%87.7109.14.1%35.6%43.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 219 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 32%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
Freddie Freeman · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating83Excellent
Last 100 pitches32trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .356running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball91.099.06.549Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.990.234.055Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.783.51.185Error
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.178.5-17.060Out
Sep 24LHPSlider89.199.82.432Single
Sep 24LHPSlider86.099.113.902Single
Sep 23LHPSlider88.585.022.410Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup91.880.331.064Out
Sep 23RHPFastball102.2101.324.835Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.2101.04.489Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider84.377.821.860Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.392.51.317Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24422001
Sep 23500001
Sep 22422002
Sep 20422001
Sep 19500001
Sep 18400002
Sep 17522010
Sep 16500003
Sep 15533000

Two strikes

Yunior Marte SF · RHPwith two strikes
Yunior Marte with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider42%44%21.1%16.1%21.1%
Fastball45%37%7.1%19.2%18.0%
Splitter13%20%14.3%7.1%19.0%
Freddie Freeman bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Freddie Freeman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.1%41.0%
Whiff%19.1%21.3%
Contact%80.9%78.7%
Chase%42.6%39.6%
wOBA.256.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.4%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.346
K%18.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV88.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

192 PA
wOBA.338
xwOBA vs this mix.351against pitches like his
RV/100-0.03
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%18.7%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yunior MarteRHP · SF vs LAD
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.7 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 45.3%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 9.9%10%67 strikeouts: 5.5%5%78 strikeouts: 2.8%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.9%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.3%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo88.5
BTB Stuff78
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball45%5893.22.1%
Slider42%9085.213.0%
Splitter13%11382.712.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19978%5%33%.477
Sep 117720%12%20%.240
Sep 46210%7%57%.343

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yunior Marte SF · RHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Freddie Freeman: every projection we've made →