MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 25, 2026
5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYM · batting 8A.J. Ewing
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.335wOBA vs LHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · WSHAndrew Alvarez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.6projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Andrew Alvarez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 33% usage, 83.1 mph, -10.7″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. A.J. Ewing: wOBA .231 vs league .226 (about even).Curveball 33%Fastball: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +3.4″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. A.J. Ewing: wOBA .357 vs league .352 (about even).Fastball 30%Slider: 17% usage, 84.6 mph, -1.0″ arm side, -1.1″ rise. A.J. Ewing: wOBA .285 vs league .280 (about even).Slider 17%Sinker: 13% usage, 91.7 mph, +14.9″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. A.J. Ewing: wOBA .343 vs league .337 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 7% usage, 86.6 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. A.J. Ewing: wOBA .330 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is A.J. Ewing's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

A.J. Ewing's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.7 mph at -13°Out: 87.3 mph at -16°Out: 79.7 mph at 39°Out: 98.9 mph at 28°Single: 37.1 mph at -74°Out: 83.2 mph at 57°Out: 92.5 mph at -10°Out: 86.3 mph at 36°Single: 55.0 mph at -1°Single: 97.1 mph at 4°Single: 98.0 mph at 13°Out: 81.6 mph at -9°Single: 98.1 mph at -6°Out: 93.2 mph at -33°Out: 97.1 mph at -12°Single: 99.1 mph at 14°Out: 94.0 mph at 0°Out: 67.1 mph at -18°Out: 86.8 mph at -13°Single: 101.3 mph at 6°Single: 84.2 mph at 10°Out: 87.5 mph at 51°Single: 20.7 mph at -30°Single: 91.5 mph at 14°Home run: 102.2 mph at 24°Out: 95.2 mph at 39°Out: 66.5 mph at -29°Out: 92.9 mph at 21°Out: 86.9 mph at 41°Out: 93.5 mph at 2°Out: 86.0 mph at -7°Single: 106.6 mph at 11°Home run: 107.1 mph at 26°Single: 105.8 mph at 5°Single: 93.1 mph at 12°Single: 93.0 mph at -7°Out: 95.6 mph at 30°Double: 104.0 mph at 11°Out: 88.9 mph at 35°Out: 96.3 mph at 42°
40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.3%58.1%-0.8
2+ total bases28.3%29.7%-1.4
Home run7.1%9.0%-1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where A.J. Ewing hits
A.J. Ewing · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seenxwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .166 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.253xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .134 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 9 pitches seen.237xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .278 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 26 pitches seen.297xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .316 on 16 PA) · league .385 · 28 pitches seen.346xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .321 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 19 pitches seen.332xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .439 on 13 PA) · league .273 · 24 pitches seen.359xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .288 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 21 pitches seen.338xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .076 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 14 pitches seen.243xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 24 pitches seen.279xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .296 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 34 pitches seen.328xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .391 on 12 PA) · league .289 · 113 pitches seen.340xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .315 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 20 pitches seen.280
vs LHP · 362 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 19%67%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 21%23%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 23%20%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 17%38%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 16%25%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 29%18%Whiff 65% of 20 swings · league 48%65%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 34%22%
vs LHP · 362 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 33% of 9 pitches · league 63%33%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 71%62%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 64%56%Swings at 62% of 26 pitches · league 67%62%Swings at 86% of 28 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 72%74%Swings at 88% of 24 pitches · league 59%88%Swings at 43% of 21 pitches · league 68%43%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 4% of 24 pitches · league 30%4%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 26%50%Swings at 18% of 113 pitches · league 31%18%Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 41%45%
vs LHP · 362 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

A.J. Ewing against each of Andrew Alvarez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball33%83.1-11″ / -12″.231.22640.2%34.3%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball30%92.3+3″ / +14″.357.35217.6%20.7%15About league average vs these
Slider17%84.6-1″ / -1″.285.28039.8%34.0%7Little history vs this shape
Sinker13%91.7+15″ / +5″.343.3378.3%10.0%23About league average vs these
Changeup7%86.6+15″ / +5″.330.32420.9%20.2%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
A.J. Ewing · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.222.222.222.200.19233.3%0.0%35.7%82.598.916.7%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1220.158.200.158.179.17025.0%5.0%28.6%86.098.97.7%38.5%7.7%
Last 30 G2339.270.308.297.291.26017.9%5.1%22.4%84.9104.33.6%39.3%28.6%
90 days4790.275.344.350.331.31024.4%8.9%25.6%87.9105.910.5%47.4%28.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.286.444.286.400.35111.1%22.2%30.8%84.7103.70.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1540.371.425.543.443.38125.0%10.0%28.6%88.6107.18.3%37.5%41.7%
Last 30 G3085.276.333.421.342.32823.5%8.2%22.9%87.5107.15.4%37.5%35.7%
90 days72230.231.289.361.308.30125.7%7.4%22.7%88.5107.16.0%39.1%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 151 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.250.333.250.294.26722.2%11.1%33.3%83.5103.79.1%36.4%18.2%
Last 15 G1560.296.350.407.354.31025.0%8.3%28.6%87.7107.18.1%37.8%29.7%
Last 30 G30124.274.325.381.326.30721.8%7.3%22.7%86.6107.14.8%38.1%33.3%
90 days75320.243.305.358.314.30425.3%7.8%23.5%88.4107.17.2%41.3%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 208 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 24%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
A.J. Ewing · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating50Average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .315results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider87.2103.7-13.297Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.787.3-16.093Out
Sep 24RHPSlider85.179.739.023Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper79.898.928.780Out
Sep 23LHPSlider81.537.1-74.206Single
Sep 23LHPSlider81.083.257.025Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.692.5-10.244Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.586.336.015Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter88.355.0-1.104Single
Sep 20LHPSinker96.197.14.461Single
Sep 20RHPSlider87.498.013.897Single
Sep 19RHPChangeup91.581.6-9.094Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24400000
Sep 23411011
Sep 22411010
Sep 20222000
Sep 19511001
Sep 18411002
Sep 17400002
Sep 16422001
Sep 15522011

Two strikes

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Andrew Alvarez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball33%49%40.2%28.6%21.2%
Fastball30%23%6.5%12.7%18.6%
Slider17%17%31.2%19.2%21.6%
Changeup7%8%0.0%4.3%18.3%
Sinker13%3%20.0%30.0%17.7%
A.J. Ewing bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
A.J. Ewing with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.9%44.1%
Whiff%23.9%22.7%
Contact%76.1%77.3%
Chase%34.5%38.2%
wOBA.239.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes30.8%29.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.319
K%24.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV88.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

88 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/100-0.37
Hard-hit%29.8%
K%23.0%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH vs NYM
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.5 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.3%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.3%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.1%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.2%
BB%11.3%
Whiff%10.1%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Curveball33%13482.915.8%
Fastball31%8592.23.4%
Slider17%10484.515.4%
Sinker13%10491.74.4%
Changeup7%9486.611.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199235%15%17%.241
Sep 129731%14%15%.190
Sep 67826%5%26%.300

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andrew Alvarez WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.A.J. Ewing: every projection we've made →