Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christopher Morel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 49.8% | 50.4% | -0.6 |
| 2+ total bases | 27.7% | 28.3% | -0.6 |
| Home run | 10.8% | 11.4% | -0.7 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Christopher Morel against each of Andrew Alvarez's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33% | 83.1 | -11″ / -12″ | .276 | .283 | 33.4% | 28.7% | 1 | Little history vs this shape |
| Fastball | 30% | 92.3 | +3″ / +14″ | .333 | .341 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 8 | Little history vs this shape |
| Slider | 17% | 84.6 | -1″ / -1″ | .300 | .308 | 40.1% | 35.0% | 1 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sinker | 13% | 91.7 | +15″ / +5″ | .357 | .365 | 15.1% | 12.5% | 6 | Little history vs this shape |
| Changeup | 7% | 86.6 | +15″ / +5″ | .306 | .314 | 32.4% | 29.5% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33% | 49% | 40.2% | 28.6% | 21.2% |
| Fastball | 30% | 23% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 18.6% |
| Slider | 17% | 17% | 31.2% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| Changeup | 7% | 8% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 13% | 3% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 17.7% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 44.6% | 41.5% |
| Whiff% | 23.7% | 21.6% |
| Contact% | 76.3% | 78.4% |
| Chase% | 39.4% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .241 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 27.5% | 25.1% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
17 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 92 | 35% | 15% | 17% | .241 |
| Sep 12 | 97 | 31% | 14% | 15% | .190 |
| Sep 6 | 78 | 26% | 5% | 26% | .300 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.