MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 25, 2026
5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 5CJ Abrams
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.289wOBA vs LHP.259xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · NYMJefry Yan
Throws leftBTB Stuff 122Stable
2.6projected K29%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Jefry Yan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 44% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .319 vs league .325 (about even).Sinker 44%Fastball: 26% usage, 97.5 mph, +4.1″ arm side, +17.2″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .317 vs league .324 (about even).Fastball 26%Slider: 21% usage, 86.4 mph, -4.6″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .263 vs league .269 (about even).Slider 21%Changeup: 9% usage, 89.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. CJ Abrams: wOBA .304 vs league .311 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is CJ Abrams's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

CJ Abrams's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.4 mph at 23°Single: 102.1 mph at 25°Out: 74.0 mph at -8°Single: 83.0 mph at 14°Out: 72.6 mph at -1°Home run: 104.2 mph at 30°Home run: 106.4 mph at 26°Out: 91.9 mph at 70°Out: 94.1 mph at 21°Home run: 101.2 mph at 30°Out: 89.1 mph at -2°Out: 76.5 mph at 57°Out: 92.3 mph at -21°Out: 94.3 mph at 28°Out: 69.3 mph at -44°Out: 74.0 mph at 14°Out: 77.2 mph at 31°Out: 80.5 mph at -36°Out: 94.0 mph at 21°Single: 71.3 mph at 20°Out: 69.8 mph at -5°Double: 101.9 mph at 20°Out: 81.4 mph at -20°Out: 94.6 mph at 75°Double: 101.7 mph at 5°Out: 95.3 mph at 1°Single: 97.6 mph at 15°Out: 93.7 mph at 6°Single: 99.9 mph at 3°Out: 87.4 mph at 44°Out: 110.5 mph at 19°Double: 100.7 mph at 16°Out: 85.8 mph at 1°Double: 102.0 mph at 11°Single: 71.0 mph at 18°Out: 90.6 mph at -22°Out: 104.5 mph at 16°Out: 95.6 mph at 52°Out: 77.5 mph at 8°Out: 92.7 mph at 27°
35% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.3%59.2%-0.9
2+ total bases36.1%36.9%-0.8
Home run13.2%13.8%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where CJ Abrams hits
CJ Abrams · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .235 on 9 PA) · league .243 · 17 pitches seen.240xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .186 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 14 pitches seen.274xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .210 on 5 PA) · league .254 · 18 pitches seen.241xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .300 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 26 pitches seen.305xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .272 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.357xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 16 pitches seen.272xwOBA .190 shrunk (raw .118 on 14 PA) · league .273 · 33 pitches seen.190xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .254 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.336xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .446 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.362xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .190 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 25 pitches seen.274xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .184 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 44 pitches seen.277xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .367 on 24 PA) · league .289 · 118 pitches seen.341xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .226 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 43 pitches seen.243
vs LHP · 408 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 46% of 11 swings · league 19%46%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 21%29%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 23%20%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 11%27%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 75% of 8 swings · league 25%75%Whiff 41% of 17 swings · league 29%41%Whiff 56% of 50 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 34%31%
vs LHP · 408 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 63%65%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at 83% of 18 pitches · league 64%83%Swings at 65% of 26 pitches · league 67%65%Swings at 73% of 22 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 72%69%Swings at 70% of 33 pitches · league 59%70%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 32% of 25 pitches · league 30%32%Swings at 39% of 44 pitches · league 26%39%Swings at 42% of 118 pitches · league 31%42%Swings at 61% of 43 pitches · league 41%61%
vs LHP · 408 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

CJ Abrams against each of Jefry Yan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker44%97.6+15″ / +12″.319.32518.3%12.7%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball26%97.5+4″ / +17″.317.32436.0%26.3%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider21%86.4-5″ / -3″.263.26941.6%33.4%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup9%89.5+13″ / +7″.304.31133.1%23.9%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
CJ Abrams · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.500.6251.000.650.6130.0%25.0%33.3%87.4102.133.3%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1123.286.348.619.407.47121.7%8.7%28.8%88.5107.025.0%37.5%68.8%
Last 30 G2243.171.209.366.247.32430.2%4.7%32.3%89.2107.017.9%39.3%42.9%
90 days49105.210.238.430.291.25936.2%3.8%33.2%87.2107.011.1%34.9%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.800.427.42036.4%9.1%36.0%93.5106.433.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1540.222.300.472.332.34920.0%10.0%26.3%90.4110.510.7%35.7%42.9%
Last 30 G2886.195.279.338.276.27525.6%10.5%27.3%89.3110.57.3%32.7%32.7%
90 days65200.264.350.511.372.36222.0%11.0%24.6%90.0110.59.9%41.2%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 24%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.312.421.875.521.50121.1%15.8%34.8%90.5106.433.3%33.3%58.3%
Last 15 G1563.246.317.526.360.39520.6%9.5%27.4%89.7110.515.9%36.4%52.3%
Last 30 G30129.186.256.347.266.29227.1%8.5%29.0%89.3110.510.8%34.9%36.1%
90 days69305.245.311.482.344.32626.9%8.5%27.7%89.1110.510.3%39.2%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
CJ Abrams · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating56Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.341 / .323running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter85.690.423.173Out
Sep 25LHPSlider87.1102.1251.144Single
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.474.0-8.067Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.283.014.855Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.772.6-1.117Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.9104.2301.594Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball94.8106.4261.860Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball96.591.970.007Out
Sep 21RHPSlider90.694.121.222Out
Sep 20LHPSlider84.1101.2301.090Home run
Sep 20LHPCurveball75.189.1-2.239Force out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.676.557.063Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 23411020
Sep 22428201
Sep 21300002
Sep 20414101
Sep 19600010
Sep 18411001
Sep 16412000
Sep 13423000
Sep 12523000

Two strikes

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Jefry Yan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider21%40%42.1%27.8%21.6%
Fastball26%22%25.0%30.0%18.6%
Sinker44%22%9.1%10.0%17.7%
Changeup9%17%66.7%46.7%18.3%
CJ Abrams bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
CJ Abrams with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.8%44.1%
Whiff%28.8%22.7%
Contact%71.2%77.3%
Chase%41.5%38.2%
wOBA.218.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes31.2%24.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.336
K%26.8%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%24.9%
Avg EV89.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

104 PA
wOBA.289
xwOBA vs this mix.259against pitches like his
RV/100-0.70
Hard-hit%21.2%
K%35.0%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jefry YanLHP · NYM vs WSH
2.6projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.4 batters over 2.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 74.0%74%≤34 strikeouts: 14.0%14%45 strikeouts: 7.2%7%56 strikeouts: 3.1%3%67 strikeouts: 1.2%1%78 strikeouts: 0.4%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%28.7%
BB%14.9%
Whiff%14.8%
Velo94.5
BTB Stuff122
Location94
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker44%12797.77.5%
Fastball26%12597.513.1%
Slider21%11786.423.2%
Changeup9%9889.035.5%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.CJ Abrams: every projection we've made →